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Recent releases

Rapid growth for non-residential building August was another strong month for non-residential building, with the total value of consents up 7.3% from last month (seasonally adjusted) and 26% from a year ago. Over the three months to August, the $1.44bn of non-residential consents granted represents 30% growth in the value of activity from this time last year, the fastest lift since January 2005. Read more

Apartment numbers keep dwelling consents elevated In seasonally adjusted terms, the number of dwelling consents remained unchanged in August. However, this figure was kept elevated by a 10% lift in apartment consents over the period. As a result, non-apartment consents eased a seasonally adjusted 1.6% in the August month. Read more

Commentary

Dairy price drop starts to hit home There was little surprise this week that Fonterra further revised down its forecast dairy payout for the season from $6.00/kgms to $5.30/kgms. This season’s payout is now down 37% from last season’s $8.40/kgms and will be the lowest since 2008/09, at the height of the Global Financial Crisis. But Fonterra’s projected payout doesn’t come without risks.
Rating the education policies National and Labour are offering quite different views onwhat new policies will improve the performance of the school system.  Labourbelieves that the current standard of teachers is fine, but what is needed ismore of them.  National believes that improving school outcomes will come fromimproving the average standard of teaching.  Their proposal is to reward betterteachers and, in particular, reward them for assisting other teachers to improveeducation outcomes.  Read more.

Regional flight price gouging – guilty until proven innocent? Airlines have dominated the news this financial reportingseason, with results showing Air New Zealand going from strength to strength,while Jetstar lost significant ground in the New Zealand domestic market.  Althoughthe ensuing media storm has centred on claims that Air New Zealand’s profitsurge was partly driven by monopolistic exploitation of travellers fromregional centres, it is more constructive to back up a couple of steps and tryto understand the backdrop to the perceived problem. Read more.

Latest Forecasts

Venturing out of the shadows

The New Zealand economy has well and truly proven it is undead, recording three consecutive quarters of growth above 1.0% for the first time since 2003/04. Strong growth is set to continue over the next two years as domestic demand remains buoyant, the Canterbury rebuild reaches its peak, and export incomes hold at relatively high levels.