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Recent releases

Migration strong, but students make it stellar There was a net inflow of 13,960 permanent arrivals in the September quarter, the largest quarterly inflow on record (going back to 1982). Although migrants on work visas and non-visa arrivals were significant contributors to this result, the biggest factor driving up net migration inflows has been a massive lift in student arrivals. We expect inflows to break 50,000pa by the start of 2015 and remain elevated over the next two years. Read more

Soft tourism numbers reflect high exchange rate Tourist arrival numbers edged up 0.9% (seasonally adjusted) in September, but are still lower than at any time between November 2013 and July this year. The soaring dollar had been making New Zealand a relatively expensive destination for tourists, and the lagged effect of the high exchange rate is likely to keep arrival numbers subdued throughout the rest of this year. Read more

Commentary

Is Europe dragging the world down with it? After improving over the first half of the year, economic indicators in Europe have taken another step downwards in recent months. With the European Central Bank consistently disappointing markets with its inaction, unemployment across Europe still elevated, and few signs of a sustainable improvement in most European economies, lenders have lost patience this week. Ten-year bond yields have shot up in Greece and are rising in Portugal, while borrowing targets in Spain have been missed.
Industry effects of minimum wage increases In 2012, the Living Wage Aotearoa NewZealand movement[1] commissioned a report on a livingwage.  As this movement gathered momentum, there has been a social push forminimum wages hikes – something a number of government parties brought intotheir pre-election policies.  This article will look into the industries mostaffected by minimum wage increases and analyse likely business responses overthe short and medium term. Read more.

What has happened with household debt? New Zealand households owe a lot of money,but they also own a lot in terms of assets.  In this article we briefly outlinewhy debt has increased, and why we believe households will still be willing andable to borrow over the next few years. Read more.

Latest Forecasts

Best before: February 2014

If you’ve gone to the fridge and taken a swig of milk from the bottle lately, you will have noticed it’s got lumps in it – which is hardly surprising when you look at the “best before” date. Prospects for the dairy payout and GDP growth looked pretty tasty back in February, but things have soured markedly throughout the course of this year.