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Recent releases

Student surge adding to net migration There was a net inflow of 4,700 people in the August month (seasonally adjusted), the largest net inflow on record. This inflow drove annual net migration up to 43,483 people, its highest ever level. A sharp lift in foreign student arrivals and a swift drop in net outflows to Australia have been the main contributors to the lift in net migration — trends that are expected to continue through into 2015, pushing annual net migration towards 50,000pa. Read more

Patchy month for tourism Tourist arrivals dropped 3.0% in August (seasonally adjusted), their third consecutive monthly fall. Arrivals for the month were at their lowest level since October last year. Read more

Commentary

The end of the golden weather? Economic growth of 0.7% in the June quarter was in line with the Reserve Bank’s latest forecasts, but was near the top end of financial market expectations. The result took year-end GDP growth to its fastest rate in seven years. However, the quarterly result still represented the slowest growth in a year, and pairing elements of the latest GDP data with our knowledge of what dairy prices have done over recent months, there is a definite feeling that the economy may now be starting to slow.
Rating the education policies National and Labour are offering quite different views onwhat new policies will improve the performance of the school system.  Labourbelieves that the current standard of teachers is fine, but what is needed ismore of them.  National believes that improving school outcomes will come fromimproving the average standard of teaching.  Their proposal is to reward betterteachers and, in particular, reward them for assisting other teachers to improveeducation outcomes.  Read more.

Regional flight price gouging – guilty until proven innocent? Airlines have dominated the news this financial reportingseason, with results showing Air New Zealand going from strength to strength,while Jetstar lost significant ground in the New Zealand domestic market.  Althoughthe ensuing media storm has centred on claims that Air New Zealand’s profitsurge was partly driven by monopolistic exploitation of travellers fromregional centres, it is more constructive to back up a couple of steps and tryto understand the backdrop to the perceived problem. Read more.

Latest Forecasts

Venturing out of the shadows

The New Zealand economy has well and truly proven it is undead, recording three consecutive quarters of growth above 1.0% for the first time since 2003/04. Strong growth is set to continue over the next two years as domestic demand remains buoyant, the Canterbury rebuild reaches its peak, and export incomes hold at relatively high levels.