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Recent releases

Private non-residential building surge continues In the year to January, the value of non-residential building rose a massive 21% from a year earlier, primarily on the back of higher activity in Canterbury and Auckland. Although rebuild-related consents will continue to support activity, we expect growth in overall non-residential building consents to cool over the coming year. Read more

Non-apartment consents fall from January 2014 Non-apartment dwelling consents fell a seasonally adjusted 7.5% in January and were lower than a year ago (down 6.8%) for the first time since September 2011. This decline was offset by a doubling of apartment consents from a year earlier, which brought total dwelling consents up 3.6% over the period. Softer economic conditions in provincial centres and a slowdown of the residential rebuild in Canterbury will limit consent growth in 2015. Read more

Commentary

Global news continues to darken This week has been filled with negative economic news stories about the global economy, with gridlock in negotiations between Greece and the rest of Europe around debt forgiveness, a disappointing GDP result in Japan, further weakness in data coming out of China, and signs that price inflation is slumping across high income countries. Although our central view is that the world will muddle through 2015, recent news suggests that the downside risks – especially from Europe and China – are intensifying.
Where has the floor on oil prices gone? Although we had been forecasting an easing in fuel costsduring the second half of 2014 and into 2015, the magnitude of the decline hastaken us, and other analysts, by surprise.  Oil costs are important for both businessactivity and households, and this article will discuss why oil prices havefallen, and what we expect to occur going forward. Read more.

Technology and subsides: how much longer can equipment costs keep falling? The last 15 years have seen an unprecedented decline in thecost of plant and machinery equipment relative to the price of other goods andservices in the economy.  What does this decline mean?  Is it sustainable?  Andwhat are the reasons why this trend may start to reverse? Read more.

Latest Forecasts

Trying to keep the run rate up

Last year began with an opening partnership of accelerating rebuilding work in Canterbury and high dairy prices that looked to be sending the New Zealand economy’s growth towards a McCullum-esque rate of 4.5%pa. Twelve months down the track, the dairy sector has been caught out by increased milk supply from Europe, forcing the rest of the economy to take a more cautious approach instead of trying to smash everything out of the park. GDP growth was 2.6% in the year to September 2014, and is now set to peak at 3.2%pa within the next year.