Setting to 1 Infometrics Ltd - Building Sector

Recent releases

Building
Migration 21/08/2008
Jul 08 | annual (net): 5.201
Building / vehicle costs 19/08/2008
Jun qtr 08 | residential a.p.c: 4.4%
House sales 13/08/2008
Jul 08 | a.p.c: -32.6%
House prices 11/08/2008
Jul 08 | a.p.c: -2.2%
Non-residential building 29/07/2008
Jun 08 | value a.p.c: -18.1%
New dwellings 29/07/2008
Jun 08 | excl. apart a.p.c: -37.4%
Monetary policy 24/07/2008
Jul qtr 08 | OCR: 8.00% (prev. 8.25%)
CPI - inflation 15/07/2008
Jun qtr 08 | a.p.c: 4.0%
Residential rents 15/07/2008
Jun qtr 08 | a.p.c. 5.2%
GDP 27/06/2008
Mar qtr 08 | production a.a.p.c: 3.0%
Work put in place 9/06/2008
Mar qtr 08 | total real q.p.c: -6.3%

MigrationAsian arrivals boost net migration 21/08/2008
Jul 08 | annual (net): 5.201
Net migration strengthened in July as the result of another significant increase in long-term arrivals. Over the year to July there was a net inflow of 5,201 people – the largest inflow since December. Overall there have been 1,600 more arrivals over the last three months than we had allowed for in our July forecasts.
Building / vehicle costsFalling dollar drags up capital costs 19/08/2008
Jun qtr 08 | residential a.p.c: 4.4%
The capital goods price index rose by 1.0% over the June quarter, taking annual growth to 3.1%. A substantial lift in the price of plant and machinery goods (up 2.2%) was the main contributor to higher capital goods prices in June.
House salesIs the housing market stabilising? 13/08/2008
Jul 08 | a.p.c: -32.6%
The deceleration in house sales falls (with sales down 33% on a year earlier) and the unchanged median house price ($340,000) appears to be positive news for the housing market. Although this suggests that house sales are now stabilising – we still anticipate further declines in house values, with prices falling 10% over the year.

Articles

Articles
Energy efficient houses
(17/05/2007)
Building big and small
(8/05/2007)
A turning point for property yields?
(5/03/2007)
Blame it on the boomers
(27/02/2007)
House price fall alert
(25/10/2006)

World data
Aus housing finance
- April 07 (11/06/07)
Aus new dwellings
- June 07 (03/08/07)
US building / property
- May 07 (09/06/07)
Aus house prices
- March qtr 07 (11/06/07)

Oh, give me a home... 21/05/2008
The government is embarking on a number of different policy initiatives to try and make housing in New Zealand more affordable, prompted by falling home ownership rates combined with housing reaching record levels of unaffordability. Measures that provide financial assistance to first-home buyers have been the easiest to implement, but the government is also looking at regulations around construction activity and the building of affordable houses. By and large, the effectiveness of the government’s policies in addressing housing unaffordability will be limited – the tax treatment of investment property remains one of the key factors behind the surge in house prices over the last six years.
If it appears too good to be true ... 2/08/2007
The government announced in the budget an intention to investigate the feasibility of introducing a shared equity housing scheme to assist low-income individuals and families to purchase a house. The approach follows overseas examples where the government purchases the house with you, ie a shared equity arrangement where the government could own say 30% of the house. The house is co-owned between you and the government, but you get to live in the house. The government shares in the capital gain, but there is no obligation for you to repay the government until the property is sold.
Building articleConstruction survey tables 21/08/2008
Our summary of major construction projects (over $25m) either under construction or in the planning pipeline, provided by What's On.

July 08 forecasts

Building
PDF |Tables |Seminar
Economic Outlook
Population and Demographics
Residential Property Market
New House Construction
Non-Residential Property
Non-Residential Construction

There is no depression in New Zealand | Economic OutlookPDF
New Zealanders are in denial if they believe that the current recession is purely the result of bad luck.  A stretched household sector, bloated government, and runaway inflation are the underlying economic ills.  In 2008/09 it is spiking oil prices, drought, a stagnant housing market and the credit crunch that will lower economic growth to a paltry 0.6%pa.  But our forecast for economic growth only averages 2.3%pa over the next five years, which is equivalent to our estimate for potential growth by 2013.  That result is due to the ignored deterioration in economic fundamentals.
Population and Demographics
Housing affordability has been an increasingly hot topic as the housing boom of the last six years pushed home ownership increasingly out of reach of the aspiring first-home buyer – we have included an article in this publication examining a number of the affordable housing policy proposals (see Oh, give me a home… – p44).  In average terms, Auckland City is the least affordable place to buy property in New Zealand.  But disparities in income distributions within districts mean that housing affordability is arguably a more critical problem for subsections of the population in other towns and cities around the country.

Infometrics affiliates

Gareth Morgan Investments Gareth Morgan KiwiSaver Morgan Family Charitable Foundation Infometrics Property