This election, we’ve brought back the Infometrics Misery Index, which looks at the state of the economy compared to previous New Zealand governments, to provide a sense test of how the electorate might be feeling in the lead-up to September 23.
New research released this month by Infometrics suggests that we might currently be underestimating net migration by between 4,000 and 8,000 people per year. These figures imply that net migration could be closer to 80,000pa than the latest official measure of 72,300.
It is Got a Trade Week, where a wide range of training and career opportunities in the trades and services industries are highlighted. But why focus on raising awareness of the trades and services industries? Simply put, they are industries that we can’t afford to ignore. Overall, they account for 75% of all employment in New Zealand!
Brad Olsen has only just reached his 20s and he’s met Queen Elizabeth II twice! He’s our youngest economist and is already making his mark both at Infometrics and in youth politics.
We chat with Brad about what a day in the life of an economist looks like…
Infometrics estimates that over the coming decade, net migration of between 10,500 and 16,600pa appears to be appropriate to maintaining New Zealand’s population growth relative to world growth. However, with net migration currently sitting at 72,300pa, a gradual approach to pulling back the numbers means that it could be seven years or longer before net migration sits within this range.
There has been a significant body of research over the last decade into the effects of immigration on various aspects of the New Zealand economy, much of it done by Motu, as well as the Reserve Bank, Treasury, or in conjunction with the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment. Some of the key findings from this research include the following.
Infometrics uses seasonally adjusted data to gauge month-to-month trends in car registrations. The purpose of doing so is to track whether there are any changes in momentum in car sales growth. It also helps us to look through the seasonal patterns that normally drive sales up or down in any given month. Examples of a regular seasonal pattern include strong growth in new car sales due to rental car purchases in October and November, or the lift in sales around the time of Fieldays in June. This article provides explains how we might use seasonally adjusted data and how we calculate it.
New Zealand’s economic growth is being constrained by shortages of labour in key areas, and this problem will become more widespread if there is a significant and rapid tightening in migration policy following this year’s election, warns Infometrics Chief Forecaster Gareth Kiernan.
At the 2014 Global Leadership Summit, a third of the executives, entrepreneurs and business academics gathered in London predicted that more than 50% their company’s full-time workforce would be working remotely by 2020. That’s only 3 years away.
Not only does Infometrics believe that this signals a significant change in the way New Zealand’s future workforce may potentially be structured, but we have embraced this trend wholeheartedly ourselves!
Steven Joyce’s first budget – and National’s ninth since it took up the government benches in late 2008 – set the tone for the election campaign to come, maintaining a rosy outlook for New Zealand. Although the Minister of Finance refuses to call it a “lolly scramble”, it is undeniable that New Zealand’s solid economic growth performance has left the government with the ability to start writing bigger cheques, announcing increased spending across a range of areas.