Downside risks to NZ’s growth outlook accumulate

New Zealand’s provincial economies are poised to drive growth in the economy, building on the recovery in dairy prices during 2016, according to Infometrics latest economic forecasts. Spending activity in the regions is comfortably outpacing activity in the main centres, with commodity prices for most exports holding at high levels.

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Gareth Kiernan, Infometrics Chief Forecaster, is available to present his insights into building & property, infrastructure and transport sectors, as well as the New Zealand economy in general. We offer national level insights, as well as a strong focus on individual regions.

Media Release: Provincial New Zealand dominates economic growth prospects

New Zealand’s provincial economies are poised to drive growth in the economy, building on the recovery in dairy prices during 2016, according to Infometrics latest economic forecasts. Spending activity in the regions is comfortably outpacing activity in the main centres, with commodity prices for most exports holding at high levels.

New Zealand’s economic outlook turns

Economic growth during 2018 is set to fall short of previous expectations, according to Infometrics’ latest forecasts. Infometrics sees economic growth slowing from 3.0%pa currently to 2.6%pa in early 2019, contrasting with the forecaster’s previous expectation of accelerating growth during 2018.
“Labour capacity constraints in the residential construction sector, changes in central government’s infrastructure priorities, and slightly disappointing dairy prices will all weigh on growth this year,” says Infometrics Chief Forecaster Gareth Kiernan.

Better growth in 2018 to prelude a more challenging next decade

Infometrics’ latest forecasts show the New Zealand economy still has more gas in the tank for 2018, despite the slowdown of the last 12 months and suggestions from some analysts that all the economy’s key drivers have already peaked. Infometrics’ Chief Forecaster Gareth Kiernan points to a buoyant export sector, increased government spending, and the perennial need to build more houses in Auckland as the key components of GDP growth averaging 3.4%pa during 2018 and 2019.

House prices to fall 12% by 2020

The New Zealand economy has entered 2017 in good spirits, with Infometrics’ latest forecast predicting GDP growth over the three years to June 2019 will average more than 3.0%pa. However, Infometrics Chief Forecaster Gareth Kiernan believes the solid outlook for growth masks several risks that hang over the economy.

A day in the life of an economist – Gareth Kiernan

With the recent Brexit vote creating waves around the world, it is likely that Michael Gove, one of the leaders of the Leave campaign, is rethinking his comments before the vote.  He was asked why he should be trusted over the overwhelming list of economists and international authorities who opposed Brexit, to which he retorted “People in this country have had enough of experts.”

Homebuilding to reach an all-time record by 2018

New analysis by economic consultants Infometrics shows the supply response to the housing crisis is on its way, with homebuilding consents forecast to hit record levels by 2018. Infometrics Chief Forecaster Gareth Kiernan has predicted a 39% increase in the number of new dwelling consents over the two years to June 2018, taking consents to an all-time record high of 40,044pa.