The latest Infometrics Quarterly Economic Monitor shows a substantial hit to regional economies from the COVID-19 pandemic and New Zealand’s restrictions during the Level 4 lockdown alongside the move down the Alert Levels. The Monitor provides the most comprehensive analysis of regional economic changes so far during the pandemic.
Economics consulting firm Infometrics is pleased to announce new appointments to their board of directors, and a new chair of the board.
New Zealand’s successful public health response to the COVID-19 pandemic should not be taken to mean our economic struggles are over, according to Infometrics’ latest forecasts. Given that life has largely returned to “normal” at Alert Level 1, economic outcomes in the near-term will be better than initially feared. However, the full effects of the border closures, business failures, and job losses will only become apparent over the next 18 months.
New Zealand is set to experience a second wave of unemployment as the wage subsidy comes to an end. Businesses have already started to “consult” staff about workforce levels, and with the wage subsidy starting to run out this week, more job losses are in store, especially if that store is The Warehouse or Max.
The latest Infometrics Quarterly Economic Monitor shows the first signs of New Zealand’s economic slowdown as the COVID-19 pandemic and recession changes the way that businesses, households, and government operates.
The government has a clear opportunity to address New Zealand’s shortage of social housing and support the residential construction industry by significantly increasing construction of state houses over the next two years, says economics consultancy Infometrics.
The New Zealand economy faces up to two years of consolidation following the COVID-19 pandemic, according to Infometrics’ latest forecasts released last week. Even with massive government intervention to cushion the downturn and stimulate a recovery, there is no way the economy can quickly and completely bounce back from the restrictions currently in place. Instead, the structural changes the New Zealand economy is undergoing will establish a new “normal” operating environment for businesses.
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The latest Infometrics Quarterly Economic Monitor suggests that regional economies may be about to turn a corner, with slight improvements in some indicators showing that renewed strength may be on the cards in 2020. However, the risks associated with the COVID-19 outbreak threatens to derail any rebound, with expectations for softer export earnings in the first half of 2020.
Infometrics’ latest forecasts suggest there is little reason to be feeling more upbeat about New Zealand’s economic prospects, despite some improvement in confidence surveys over the last few months. The company expects growth to regain some momentum over the next year, but it believes nothing has changed to help the economy avoid mediocre results beyond 2021.