Confidence remains that the New Zealand economy can weather the Delta outbreak and bounce back strongly again from lockdown, according to Infometrics’ latest economic forecasts. Infometrics predicts that household spending will once again be in “catch up” mode when alert level restrictions are eventually eased. Business confidence also shows that, overall, firms remain optimistic about a return to normal.
Our work in the news
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Here is a list of Infometrics’ latest mentions in the media.
The massive increase in tourist numbers coming to New Zealand between the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic is well documented, lifting from under 2.5m in 2008 to 3.9m in 2019. But it’s perhaps less well-known that agriculture and forestry exports held their own during this period, with their share of total exports increasing from 44% to 49%.
New Zealand’s fiscal and economic settings need to be fine-tuned and debated sooner rather than later to avoid leaving future generations of New Zealanders with unsustainable challenges.
The bounce back from Lockdown 2.0 has begun, but the overall recovery has been restrained by Auckland remaining at higher alert levels. Auckland’s move to Level 3 is welcome news, with a larger amount of economic activity to take place. But risks remain for the pace of New Zealand’s rebound, with supply chain issues and the need to balance health and economic priorities creating a difficult set of choices.
The COVID-19 pandemic has brought about some fundamental changes to both New Zealand and the world – including supercharging a shift in working patterns and locations. Working from home first became a necessity during Alert Level 4 in April 2020, and the rush to equip businesses and workers to operate away from the office has sparked a trend that appears here to stay. The latest Level 4 lockdown has doubled down on this focus, as business sought to keep operations going. Offices and urban centres aren’t a thing of the past – not by a longshot. But as our analysis shows, New Zealanders are working, travelling, and spending differently.
A fact that may surprise some New Zealanders is that their life is tracked and monitored by the government from the day they are born until the day they die.
COVID-19 restrictions are continuing to ease across the world as vaccination levels rise, permitting restaurants to reopen and consumers to dine. The hospitality sector, although battling to stay afloat with services such as contactless takeaways, has seen a strong recovery around the world as people begin to leave their homes again.
In the past 12 months clients have increasingly been asking us for real time data. This is understandable.
Rob Heyes looks at the ways that real time data is used in economic analysis and the trade-offs that need to be considered when using real time data.
Drawing inspiration from Emma Vitz’s maps showing how much income is needed for housing costs around New Zealand’s regions, we thought we’d compare costs with household incomes across cities and districts.
The Reserve Bank’s August 2021 Monetary Policy Statement made it clear that interest rates will continue to be pushed higher. Demand conditions across the New Zealand economy are strong, but supply issues are creating heightened labour market and inflationary pressures.