Population shift: provinces rise, urbans fall

New Zealand’s population continues to evolve as changing working trends, affordability considerations, and people movements help shape local communities. Fewer births and deaths, a huge reversal in net international migration, and sustained net internal migration trends all contributed to the changing population around New Zealand. As our analysis shows, these trends are driving stronger population growth in provincial centres around New Zealand, as urban centres feel the loss of overseas migration.

Expanding export opportunities in the UK

The free trade agreement signed earlier this month between New Zealand and the United Kingdom will open up huge opportunities for local exporters. The Free Trade Agreement (FTA) will eliminate all tariffs on New Zealand exports, with 97% of them being removed the day the FTA comes into force. Although, the government estimates the FTA will boost GDP by $1b we have used our Export Market Finder tool to identify some of the top opportunities for New Zealand exporters.

Chart of the Month: Inflation highest in the North Island

Cost pressures are building across the economy, as strong demand encounters severely stretched supply chains. Businesses are being forced to raise prices to consumers as their own suppliers hike input costs. Inflation in September 2021 was 4.9% in New Zealand – the fastest in decades if you ignore the GST rise in 2011. Provincial areas of the North Island are seeing the highest price rises, as strong economic intentions hit capacity constraints.

Media Release: Economy to bounce back as we learn to live with Delta

Confidence remains that the New Zealand economy can weather the Delta outbreak and bounce back strongly again from lockdown, according to Infometrics’ latest economic forecasts. Infometrics predicts that household spending will once again be in “catch up” mode when alert level restrictions are eventually eased. Business confidence also shows that, overall, firms remain optimistic about a return to normal.

Don’t be complacent about agriculture’s ability to rescue us

The massive increase in tourist numbers coming to New Zealand between the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic is well documented, lifting from under 2.5m in 2008 to 3.9m in 2019. But it’s perhaps less well-known that agriculture and forestry exports held their own during this period, with their share of total exports increasing from 44% to 49%.

Counting the cost of the Delta Lockdown

The bounce back from Lockdown 2.0 has begun, but the overall recovery has been restrained by Auckland remaining at higher alert levels. Auckland’s move to Level 3 is welcome news, with a larger amount of economic activity to take place. But risks remain for the pace of New Zealand’s rebound, with supply chain issues and the need to balance health and economic priorities creating a difficult set of choices.

Monday the most popular day to stay home

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought about some fundamental changes to both New Zealand and the world – including supercharging a shift in working patterns and locations. Working from home first became a necessity during Alert Level 4 in April 2020, and the rush to equip businesses and workers to operate away from the office has sparked a trend that appears here to stay. The latest Level 4 lockdown has doubled down on this focus, as business sought to keep operations going. Offices and urban centres aren’t a thing of the past – not by a longshot. But as our analysis shows, New Zealanders are working, travelling, and spending differently.