Recent releases
Transport
Building / vehicle costs 19/08/2010
Jun qtr 10 | residential a.p.c: 0.2%
Retail sales 13/08/2010
Jun qtr 10 | excl. auto a.p.c: 1.7%
Monetary policy 29/07/2010
Jul 10 | OCR: 3.00% (prev. 2.75%)
CPI - inflation 16/07/2010
Jun qtr 10 | a.p.c: 1.8%
Car sales 3/05/2007
Apr 07 | new 3m.a.p.c: -3.8%
Light commercials 13/04/2007
Mar 07 | new 3m.a.p.c: -2.0%
Heavy commercials 13/04/2007
Mar 07 | total 3m.a.p.c: -4.5%
Jun qtr 10 | residential a.p.c: 0.2%
Retail sales 13/08/2010
Jun qtr 10 | excl. auto a.p.c: 1.7%
Monetary policy 29/07/2010
Jul 10 | OCR: 3.00% (prev. 2.75%)
CPI - inflation 16/07/2010
Jun qtr 10 | a.p.c: 1.8%
Car sales 3/05/2007
Apr 07 | new 3m.a.p.c: -3.8%
Light commercials 13/04/2007
Mar 07 | new 3m.a.p.c: -2.0%
Heavy commercials 13/04/2007
Mar 07 | total 3m.a.p.c: -4.5%
ReportsTransport update, July 2010
(22/07/2010)
Transport update, June 2010
(24/06/2010)
Transport update, May 2010
(25/05/2010)
Transport update, April 2010
(23/04/2010)
Transport update, February 2010
(23/03/2010)
Transport update, January 2010
(19/02/2010)
(22/07/2010)
Transport update, June 2010
(24/06/2010)
Transport update, May 2010
(25/05/2010)
Transport update, April 2010
(23/04/2010)
Transport update, February 2010
(23/03/2010)
Transport update, January 2010
(19/02/2010)
Transport update, August 2010 23/08/2010Following a decidedly dovish (soft on inflation) statement from the Reserve Bank in July, and a run of negative economic data, market expectations for interest rate rises in the near-term have fallen markedly. The deterioration in both domestic and international economic conditions has led us to revise down the amount of tightening we expect in the near term. The Bank will likely lift the OCR in September but we expect them to then take a break, keeping rates steady until March 2011. The TWI exchange rate has been reasonably steady over the last couple of months and is likely to remain near current levels throughout the rest of 2010.
Capital cost growth restrained 19/08/2010Jun qtr 10 | residential a.p.c: 0.2%
In the June quarter, the capital goods price index rose slightly from March, up 0.1%. Weak demand for capital and an elevated New Zealand dollar have helped to hold down capital good costs. As the economy recovers we expect capital good cost growth to pick up gradually over the next year.
Getting the goods out the door 13/08/2010Jun qtr 10 | excl. auto a.p.c: 1.7%
The volume of core (non-automotive) retail sales rose 0.9% in the June quarter. This result was a suprisingly strong one given the recent string of negative indicators in the household sector. However, it appears that the jump in the volume of sales was the result of discounting in the retail sector – implying that strong growth may be not be sustained once this discounting comes to an end.
July 10 forecasts
Transport
The beautiful game | Economic OutlookPDFThe All Whites’ run at the FIFA World Cup may be over, but the New Zealand economy’s run of strong export prices is set to continue for some time yet. Sustained demand from China has been a central theme of our forecasts in recent times, and remains a key factor in ensuring this country’s economic success over the next five years.
Tourism ActivityWith the swine flu
scare behind them, and the global economy picking up, travellers around the
world are once again taking to the skies. Tourist arrivals in the year to
March 2010 rose 3% from a year earlier. Despite an 11% fall in arrivals from Australia, we expect total arrival numbers to rise
1.2% in the year to March 2011. The pull of the Rugby World Cup will see growth
in arrival numbers and guest nights pick up further over the rest of 2011.
Although tourism activity will subside during 2012, growth in arrivals will
turn positive again in the outer years of our forecast horizon.
The Car MarketThe outlook for the car market has improved since our March
publication, thanks primarily to a buoyant rural sector and stronger income
growth. New car prices have begun to come down, and the pressure will be very
much on the downside over the next couple of years (save a minor lift following
the hike in GST). We expect used car sales to rise over the next two years as
household demand bounces back, but the recovery will be severely constrained.
Used car sales will have to contend with the Euro 5 Standard from 2012, and
second-hand cars from Japan will be in short supply by then. We are more
optimistic about the outlook for new car sales, thanks to the weak supply of
used imports, the improving economic outlook, and the expectation that new car
prices will trend downwards in real terms over the next five years.
Residual ValuesRealising residual values set during 2010 will be much
easier in three years’ time due to a pick-up in income growth and domestic
demand. Although car prices will be lower in three years’ time than they are
now, the fall in prices will be mitigated by higher GST and a tighter supply of
used imports.
Road Freight and External TradeRoad freight activity remains weak, but is no longer
falling. We expect to see a significant pick-up in activity over the next few
months, as domestic demand improves. The outlook for export volumes is also
good, and dairy volumes in the upper North Island during 2011 should bounce
back from last season’s drought. But while demand conditions are improving,
costs for the freight industry are also beginning to pick up. We expect
significant increases in fuel prices over the next 12 months, and labour cost
growth may also accelerate from 2012 onwards.
Commercial VehiclesThe turning point for new light commercial sales was mid-2009, while
medium and very heavy commercials appear to be close to a turning point as this
forecast goes to print. A buoyant dairy sector, stronger terms of trade, and a
forestry sector being boosted by Asian demand have led to upward revisions in
our truck sales forecasts. We now expect medium truck sales to reach 1,200pa
by the end of 2012, while light commercial sales will be running at over
17,500pa by this time. The bounce-back in new truck sales will be aided by a
tighter supply of used imports. But although the forecast recovery may seem
swift, it will not make up the gap in sales volumes left by the recession.
Articles
Articles
What price peak oil?
(15/05/2008)
Sea Change – what does it mean for transport
(7/03/2008)
Commodity prices: what does the Baltic Dry Index tell us?
(6/03/2008)
Paying for the privilege of fuel consumption
(9/07/2007)
Fuel Tax Efficiency
(14/05/2007)
(15/05/2008)
Sea Change – what does it mean for transport
(7/03/2008)
Commodity prices: what does the Baltic Dry Index tell us?
(6/03/2008)
Paying for the privilege of fuel consumption
(9/07/2007)
Fuel Tax Efficiency
(14/05/2007)
Re-tapping the car markets potential 29/09/2009Total car sales during the first quarter of 2009 were down
40% from a year earlier, representing a difficult time for anyone trying to
make a living in the automotive industry. But the question on many people’s
minds is whether car sales will regain their former glory once the economy
improves. This article provides five-year estimates for the three drivers of
car sales – replacement demand, ownership rate, and household formation. Car
sales appear to be well below fundamentals at present, and are poised to rise
significantly when the economy improves.
Road Trip down Memory Lane 17/08/2009New Zealanders have a passion for cars. With the exception of the US, our love affair with the automobile has led to New Zealand having more cars per head of population than anywhere in the world. The car industry is very different to how it once was back in the late 1980s. The significant changes to regulations around importing vehicles have influenced New Zealanders’ consumption of cars.
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