Recent releases

Transport
Monetary policy 26/01/2012
Jan 12 | OCR: 2.50% (prev. 2.50%)
CPI - inflation 19/01/2012
Dec qtr 11 | a.p.c: 1.8%
Building / vehicle costs 17/11/2011
Sep qtr 11 | residential a.p.c: 1.4%
Retail sales 14/11/2011
Sep qtr 11 | excl. auto volume a.p.c: 5.6%
Car sales 3/05/2007
Apr 07 | new 3m.a.p.c: -3.8%
Light commercials 13/04/2007
Mar 07 | new 3m.a.p.c: -2.0%
Heavy commercials 13/04/2007
Mar 07 | total 3m.a.p.c: -4.5%

Reports

Transport SectorTransport update January 2012 27/01/2012
The consumers price index showed a surprising 0.3% fall in the December quarter. Drops in food and communication prices led the index’s fall, but even if these items are excluded, the CPI would only have risen 0.2% in the quarter. With inflation contained, we don’t expect the Reserve Bank to begin looking at increasing the official cash rate until the beginning of 2013 as it seeks to support the economy while the turmoil in Europe clouds the outlook.
Monetary policyBalancing the risks 26/01/2012
Jan 12 | OCR: 2.50% (prev. 2.50%)
The Reserve Bank left the official cash rate on hold at 2.5% today. The Bank pointed to a myriad of factors that have either improved or deteriorated since December, but overall the Bank's outlook for interest rates appears to be relatively unchanged.
CPI - inflationVegetables and broadband drive down prices 19/01/2012
Dec qtr 11 | a.p.c: 1.8%
The consumers price index fell 0.3% in the December quarter, primarily on the back of a sharp drop in vegetable prices and lower costs for telecommunication services. Even if we ignored these declines, underlying price growth is very weak – implying that the Reserve Bank will feel under no pressure to increase interest rates before the later stages of the year.
Appearances can be deceptive | Executive SummaryPDF
It’s been more than three years since the collapse of Lehman Brothers, and spectators to the world economy remain as dumbfounded as ever.  Just when it appeared that the global financial fiasco had finally ended, Europe has done its best to come up with another suspense-filled act.
Forecast Story
The European debt crisis is causing uncertainty across financial markets, undermining growth prospects both offshore and in New Zealand. The weaker outlook for developed economies presents risks for Asia and Australasia growth, but the biggest effect on New Zealand may be felt in less fluid credit markets. Renewed reluctance to boost investment and employment is likely to delay any substantial pick-up in household spending. When this setback is combined with the possible delays in getting Christchurch’s rebuild underway, we have significantly revised down our forecast of average GDP growth over the three years to March 2014 from 3.6% to 2.9%pa.
Background Drivers
The New Zealand dollar has fallen substantially in recent months as investors’ appetite for risk has diminished due to the ongoing European debt crisis.  The weakening trend has also been supported by a shift in interest rate expectations.  The Reserve Bank is now unlikely to begin raising interest rates until March next year, reducing the attractiveness of placing money in New Zealand.  As a result, the currency is likely to hold well below its recent peaks during 2012.
Exchange rate
We have significantly lowered our exchange rate forecasts over the next year, with risk appetite reduced by the debt crisis in Europe.
Car prices
A high New Zealand dollar will put downward pressure on new car prices, but regulatory change and a persistent shortage of used cars in Japan will ensure that used car prices remain high.
Replacing that old bomb 2/12/2011
Total car sales are 30% below where they were four years ago before the Global Financial Crisis.  We investigate whether car sales will return to their former level within the foreseeable future.
Re-tapping the car markets potential 29/09/2009
Total car sales during the first quarter of 2009 were down 40% from a year earlier, representing a difficult time for anyone trying to make a living in the automotive industry.  But the question on many people’s minds is whether car sales will regain their former glory once the economy improves.  This article provides five-year estimates for the three drivers of car sales – replacement demand, ownership rate, and household formation.  Car sales appear to be well below fundamentals at present, and are poised to rise significantly when the economy improves.
Transport articleTransport Indicator Graphs 3/02/2012
A graphical summary of recent trends in transport activity.

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