Setting to 1 Infometrics Ltd - Transport Sector

Recent releases

Transport
Building / vehicle costs 19/08/2008
Jun qtr 08 | residential a.p.c: 4.4%
Retail sales 15/08/2008
Jun 08 | excl. auto a.p.c: 1.0%
Monetary policy 24/07/2008
Jul qtr 08 | OCR: 8.00% (prev. 8.25%)
CPI - inflation 15/07/2008
Jun qtr 08 | a.p.c: 4.0%
Car sales 3/05/2007
Apr 07 | new 3m.a.p.c: -3.8%
Light commercials 13/04/2007
Mar 07 | new 3m.a.p.c: -2.0%
Heavy commercials 13/04/2007
Mar 07 | total 3m.a.p.c: -4.5%

Reports
Transport update, June 2008
(16/07/2008)
Transport update, May 2008
(12/06/2008)
Transport update, April 2008
(19/05/2008)
Transport update, March 2008
(22/04/2008)
Transport update, February 2008
(14/03/2008)
Transport update, January 2008
(19/02/2008)

Transport SectorTransport update, July 2008 21/08/2008
The Reserve Bank cut the official cash rate for the first time in five years in July – a move that we felt was a touch hasty. Our concern appears to have been justified, with the June quarter labour market figures indicating that wages pressures in New Zealand are still intense. However, with retail sales continuing to fall markedly (down 1.5% over the June quarter), the Reserve Bank is likely to continue cutting interest rates – taking the official cash rate to 7% by January. A natural consequence of falling interest rates is a weaker dollar. The New Zealand dollar has fallen 16% against the $US since March, a trend that will continue over the rest of 2008 – albeit at a slower rate.
Building / vehicle costsFalling dollar drags up capital costs 19/08/2008
Jun qtr 08 | residential a.p.c: 4.4%
The capital goods price index rose by 1.0% over the June quarter, taking annual growth to 3.1%. A substantial lift in the price of plant and machinery goods (up 2.2%) was the main contributor to higher capital goods prices in June.
Retail salesLower prices prevent free fall in retail sales 15/08/2008
Jun 08 | excl. auto a.p.c: 1.0%
The volume of total retail sales fell by a further 1.5% in June (seasonally adjusted), the largest quarterly reduction since March 1991. Core retail sales (sales excluding the automotive subsectors) fell by 0.7% over the quarter lead by a 3.7% reduction in the volume of supermarket sales.

Articles

Articles
Commodity prices: what does the Baltic Dry Index tell us?
(6/03/2008)
Paying for the privilege of fuel consumption
(9/07/2007)
Fuel Tax Efficiency
(14/05/2007)
Bio-fuels aren't the silver bullet
(12/02/2007)
A year of two halves
(20/12/2006)

What price peak oil? 15/05/2008
Long-time readers of our forecasts will probably be aware that, over the last seven years, we have typically expected world oil prices to settle back down over the medium-term, usually US$10-15 below the prevailing level when we’ve been preparing the forecasts. Such a view has not been out of line with the received wisdom. Consensus forecasts for oil prices over the same period have generally tracked the current oil price with some downward adjustment expected over the coming year to bring oil prices back to more “normal” levels. The futures market has generally been a little less sure of any reversal in prices, but even so, an oil price of US$120/bl was never on anyone’s radar even 12 months ago.
Sea Change – what does it mean for transport 7/03/2008
Sea Change is one of a set of three maritime strategies that have been drafted by the government. The Sea Change strategy is focused on transport vehicles, while the Port and Harbour strategy focuses on harbour safety, and the 4 Conventions strategy is related to tying our maritime laws more closely with international agreements.
Transport articleTransport Indicator Graphs 5/06/2008
A graphical summary of recent trends in transport activity.

July 08 forecasts

Transport
PDF |Seminar
Economic Outlook
Transport Activity and Prices
The Car Market
Residual Values
Sectors
Commercial Vehicles

There is no depression in New Zealand | Economic OutlookPDF
New Zealanders are in denial if they believe that the current recession is purely the result of bad luck.  A stretched household sector, bloated government, and runaway inflation are the underlying economic ills.  In 2008/09 it is spiking oil prices, drought, a stagnant housing market and the credit crunch that will lower economic growth to a paltry 0.6%pa.  But our forecast for economic growth only averages 2.3%pa over the next five years, which is equivalent to our estimate for potential growth by 2013.  That result is due to the ignored deterioration in economic fundamentals.
Transport Activity and Prices
Transport operators face a tough economic climate over the next year with rising fuel bills, tighter margins, and sagging demand for their services.  The longer-term outlook is brighter, with interest rates set to fall a little from September, significant tax cuts over the next three years (no matter which party governs after November), a terms of trade at sustained highs, and a tight labour market. Slower growth in forest production as a result of the emissions trading scheme will be the biggest drag on demand for road freight services over the next five years.

Infometrics affiliates

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