New Zealand is slowly moving from the response to the recovery phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. This shift in focus means we’re trying to understand what New Zealand’s recovery path might look like, and where job opportunities might be five years from now. In an earlier article, we looked at industry-level job losses in the short term to March 2021.
Continued calls for infrastructure investment and shovel-ready projects have yet to be matched with actual spending, but this problem isn’t a new one. Infometrics’ analysis of international data shows that New Zealand has been investing in infrastructure at a lower rate than other comparable countries for the last 30 years.
New Zealand is set to experience a second wave of unemployment as the wage subsidy comes to an end. Businesses have already started to “consult” staff about workforce levels, and with the wage subsidy starting to run out this week, more job losses are in store, especially if that store is The Warehouse or Max.
Facing the greatest economic downturn in a century, Budget 2020 was always going to present a grim picture of rising unemployment, lower economic activity, and ballooning debt. But the Budget also lays a firm foundation for the economy to recover, with spending on areas needed to both respond to, and recover from, the COVID-19 pandemic and resulting economic downturn.
The latest Infometrics Quarterly Economic Monitor shows the first signs of New Zealand’s economic slowdown as the COVID-19 pandemic and recession changes the way that businesses, households, and government operates.
New Zealand has exited the Level 4 lockdown and is now in the Level 3 “waiting room”. Job losses are expected to keep rising as businesses reassess economic conditions and start to downsize. The structural changes New Zealand’s labour market will experience will be significant, as will the need for government support. In this article, we highlight some of the changing trends in the labour market.
With the government turning its mind to how New Zealand can best recover from a severe economic downturn, an ability to rapidly deploy and execute recovery policies will prove critical to success. But our analysis shows that, prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, other government policies such as the Provincial Growth Fund (PGF) haven’t been able to move at pace. A greater focus on local decision making, with a coordinated and integrated approach, provides the best chance for the Provincial Growth Fund to be reimagined as a Regional Resilience Fund.
The rapid deterioration in economic conditions across New Zealand, and expectations for a long, slow, recovery, signal a tough few years for the economy. But New Zealand’s strong primary sector, and position as a food exporter, is likely to provide a solid foundation for regional New Zealand.
New Zealand’s Level 4 lockdown has seen non-essential businesses ordered closed or to work from isolation, causing a rapid shift in how companies across the country operate. Working from home has become the new norm, so this article looks at how many workers in each industry are likely still operating from their home office.
Infometrics estimates suggest that only 53% of New Zealand’s workforce can continue to work during the COVID-19 Level 4 lockdown, with almost 1.2m workers sitting idle for the next four weeks.