Infometrics estimates suggest that only 53% of New Zealand’s workforce can continue to work during the COVID-19 Level 4 lockdown, with almost 1.2m workers sitting idle for the next four weeks.
The COVID-19 pandemic has sent New Zealand into a full-scale lockdown. In doing so, the government is working to flatten the curve and ensure that lives are saved. There is no escaping that this decision puts the economy into hibernation for the next month. Most of what will be achieved in the next four weeks will be maintaining an economic heartbeat while stamping out the virus as much as possible. If this plan is successful, New Zealand can emerge from the crisis sooner rather than later and thereby maximise its chances of regaining momentum in the economy.
New Zealanders have overrun supermarkets across the country over the last week, with the COVID-19 pandemic inviting panic buying and fear over access to the basics. However, our high-level analysis shows that food production and food imports remain resilient.
The COVID-19 pandemic is causing economic chaos both internationally and in New Zealand. A recession is now inevitable, and the economic ramifications of the pandemic and response will substantially change people’s livelihoods. However, New Zealand is resilient and stands ready to weather this pandemic, and there are actions that can be taken to reduce the severity of the economic blow.
The COVID-19 threat continues to loom over the economy, with a rise in international cases adding weight to the view that the impact will be longer than originally hoped. New Zealand exports continue to be under pressure, and now supply chain issues are becoming more worrying.
Infometrics’ recent Regional Economic Profiles refresh shows that employment in 2019 across provincial New Zealand rose at a faster pace than urban growth for the first time since 2011.
The latest Infometrics Quarterly Economic Monitor suggests that regional economies may be about to turn a corner, with slight improvements in some indicators showing that renewed strength may be on the cards in 2020. However, the risks associated with the COVID-19 outbreak threatens to derail any rebound, with expectations for softer export earnings in the first half of 2020.
The emergence of a new coronavirus strand, COVID-19, has potentially upended both the global and domestic economic outlook for 2020. Although it’s still too early to fully evaluate how damaging the outbreak may be, early signs are for a much larger economic hit than first anticipated, with a growing risk that New Zealand could experience a recession in 2020.
Housing looks set to continue dominating headlines in 2020, as house prices look to rally again and rent pressures grow. Who’s got property, who’s paying for property, and how many need property will all be key issues through the year as we build towards another election. But separate from that, the spotlight will keep shining on the housing market as New Zealand’s primary method of wealth creation. With so much money and interest wrapped up in property, here are some of the components to watch in 2020.
The latest Infometrics Quarterly Regional Economic Monitor points towards a slowing economy, even as growth remains broad-based across the country. Construction activity continues to grow at pace as New Zealand attempts to make up the shortfalls in housing, services, and infrastructure from rapid population growth over previous years.