On 26 June, Infometrics will release our take on key megatrends likely to affect the NZ and specific sectors at the Infometrics sponsored Industry Training Federation conference. The theme of this conference is ‘Skills in a Changing World’, which will bring together thought leaders from Government, industry, and the education system to consider these themes at global, national, local, and workplace levels.
Gareth Kiernan (Infometrics Chief Forecaster) chats to Liam Dann, of NZ Herald Economy Hub, about the expected economic slowdown over the next few years.
A range of factors have combined to drive the slowdown, many of which can be sheeted back to government policy.
We have recently conducted a survey of local councils across the country to gauge how optimistic they are about the employment outlook for their area. The survey asked people involved with economic development in councils about their perceptions of employment growth prospects in their area over the next one and four years.
Economic growth during 2018 is set to fall short of previous expectations, according to Infometrics’ latest forecasts. Infometrics sees economic growth slowing from 3.0%pa currently to 2.6%pa in early 2019, contrasting with the forecaster’s previous expectation of accelerating growth during 2018.
“Labour capacity constraints in the residential construction sector, changes in central government’s infrastructure priorities, and slightly disappointing dairy prices will all weigh on growth this year,” says Infometrics Chief Forecaster Gareth Kiernan.
This year is shaping up to be one of change for the New Zealand economy. This article concentrates on seven major areas of policy shift and how much change the Labour-led government might achieve in the next 12 months.
This year is shaping up to be one of change for the New Zealand economy. Our annual dispatch From the Beach for 2018 concentrates on seven major areas of policy shift and how much change the Labour-led government might achieve in the next 12 months.
A raft of unfavourable confidence surveys have been released over the last couple of months. Firstly, ANZ’s business confidence surveys for November and December showed confidence at a nine-year low. And last week the headline figure in the NZIER’s Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO) fell into negative territory for the first time since 2015. Is the economy going downhill or are we just in an election-related blip?
Infometrics’ latest forecasts show the New Zealand economy still has more gas in the tank for 2018, despite the slowdown of the last 12 months and suggestions from some analysts that all the economy’s key drivers have already peaked. Infometrics’ Chief Forecaster Gareth Kiernan points to a buoyant export sector, increased government spending, and the perennial need to build more houses in Auckland as the key components of GDP growth averaging 3.4%pa during 2018 and 2019.
Councils nationwide have begun preliminary work scoping out key issues for their 2018 Long-Term Plan – a document that sets out each Council’s intentions for the next decade. The LTP process is an arduous one that puts the focus on localised issues affecting infrastructure, business and community development across all townships and communities within each territorial authority. Southland District provides an interesting case study for teasing out sub-district insights from Infometrics small area profiles.
Bill English’s eighth Budget was a pretty boring event for policy and economic buffs out there, with an expanding economy ensuring growth in the overall tax take outstrips the lift in spending. National has long since set its ship on course, so the Budget was very much just a little tinkering around the edges. That being said, we did highlight a few issues we see specifically affecting our clients across the construction, transport, and education sectors, as well as in the regions.