Gareth Kiernan starts the year by looking at what we can expect of the New Zealand economy, and life in general, in 2021.
Chief Forecaster Gareth Kiernan has updated the tradtional 12 Days of Christmas rhyme. This song was riginally published in England in 1780 without music. The standard tune now associated with it is derived from a 1909 arrangement of a traditional folk melody by English composer Frederic Austin…
From the beginning of the COVID-19 recession, we’ve expected regions with large food-based primary sectors to weather the economic storm better than those that are highly exposed to international tourism.
New Zealand’s economy rebounded strongly in the September quarter, with regional economies showing renewed strength as they get back on their feet. The latest Infometrics Quarterly Economic Monitor points to a surge in activity as the economy’s resilience saw businesses and consumers swing back into action after a substantial hit in the June quarter.
A second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic is sweeping the world, even as New Zealand’s containment measures remain robust. The rising tide of cases could stymie economic rebounds expected globally, with negative implications for New Zealand’s export potential heading into 2021.
Since the borders were closed in March, we have consistently argued that an increase in spending by New Zealanders on domestic holidays could never make up for the loss in revenue from foreign visitors. Data for 2019 shows that international tourism was worth $16.0b to the New Zealand economy, while Kiwis spent $6.2b on overseas holidays.
Despite rebounding well from the initial lockdown and effects of the COVID-19 pandemic so far, the New Zealand economy remains vulnerable, according to the latest projections from Infometrics. The company is forecasting a double-dip recession to hit during 2021, as delayed job losses punch a hole in consumer spending and drag economic activity lower.
The COVID-19 pandemic has had major ramifications for the New Zealand economy and put a spotlight on the structure of local economies. One of the key determinants of how regional economies are performing is how much of a focus they have on either of the tourism or primary sectors. But a bigger issue looms for some areas, with some key industrial players rapidly reassessing their future, which could remove a substantial chunk of activity from some local economies.
Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, migration movements have presented themselves as a puzzling aspect of New Zealand’s economic path forward. Migration has many effects on both the labour market and the wider economy, and will remain a key, but rapidly changing, factor moving ahead, so it’s worth paying attention to.
Although the movement of people across the globe has come to a near standstill, New Zealand’s exports mean that we still have a large connection to the outside world. Revenue from goods exports are income for many New Zealanders and have thankfully been quite resilient to the effects of COVID-19. It’s hard finding cheerful good news stories during a global pandemic and subsequent global recession.