Better growth in 2018 to prelude a more challenging next decade

Infometrics’ latest forecasts show the New Zealand economy still has more gas in the tank for 2018, despite the slowdown of the last 12 months and suggestions from some analysts that all the economy’s key drivers have already peaked. Infometrics’ Chief Forecaster Gareth Kiernan points to a buoyant export sector, increased government spending, and the perennial need to build more houses in Auckland as the key components of GDP growth averaging 3.4%pa during 2018 and 2019.

Lower house prices to slow economic growth in 2017

Infometrics’ latest forecasts show house prices falling in the second half of 2017, as the flow-on effects of tighter mortgage lending conditions and higher interest rates dampen demand. The emergence of flat or falling house prices within the next few years will undermine consumers’ willingness to spend, while the discretionary portion of households’ budgets will be squeezed as interest rates gradually rise from their historic lows.

85,000 new jobs for Auckland

Auckland is New Zealand’s engine and is expected to outperform the national economy over the next four years, according to Infometrics Regional Perspectives report released today. The Infometrics Regional Perspectives report provides an outlook for economic conditions in New Zealand’s regions and industries over the next four years.

House prices to fall 12% by 2020

The New Zealand economy has entered 2017 in good spirits, with Infometrics’ latest forecast predicting GDP growth over the three years to June 2019 will average more than 3.0%pa. However, Infometrics Chief Forecaster Gareth Kiernan believes the solid outlook for growth masks several risks that hang over the economy.

Nelson-Tasman economic growth soars above national average

Nelson-Tasman’s economy grew quickly over the first half of 2016, with Infometrics’ provisional estimate of GDP showing growth in Nelson-Tasman of 4.4% over the June year, compared with estimated growth of 2.7% nationally. Infometrics Senior Economist Benje Patterson says “Several factors have contributed to this growth, including increasing levels of building activity, a growing population, better conditions for primary sector exporters, and soaring visitor numbers into the broader region.”