The COVID-19 pandemic has had major ramifications for the New Zealand economy and put a spotlight on the structure of local economies. One of the key determinants of how regional economies are performing is how much of a focus they have on either of the tourism or primary sectors. But a bigger issue looms for some areas, with some key industrial players rapidly reassessing their future, which could remove a substantial chunk of activity from some local economies.
Auckland is home to a third of the country’s population, so with the region under Level 3 lockdown, the flow of visitors to all of the country is affected.
The announcement of community transmission of COVID-19 in August has been a reality check on our progress towards recovery. With Auckland now under Alert Level 3 restrictions, and the rest of New Zealand at Alert Level 2, the economic outlook has turned darker. This note provides our initial analysis of the economic effects of the changes, as well as an update on how our view of the economic outlook is changing.
The New Zealand border has been closed since March, and with it, international tourism has all but vanished. International arrivals in July were 98% lower than a year ago, with only 3,521 arrivals. But even though there aren’t many new visitors arriving, there are quite a few still in New Zealand. Data published by StatsNZ estimates there to be somewhere between 90,000 and 140,000 international tourists currently residing across the country, which has implications for employment and support needs.
The latest Infometrics Quarterly Economic Monitor shows a substantial hit to regional economies from the COVID-19 pandemic and New Zealand’s restrictions during the Level 4 lockdown alongside the move down the Alert Levels. The Monitor provides the most comprehensive analysis of regional economic changes so far during the pandemic.
The COVID-19 pandemic will see very few winners. We will all come out poorer and worse off, but some will lose more than others. Low skilled workers, young workers, Māori and Pacifica workers are more vulnerable and likely to be hardest hit. These effects will exacerbate existing inequalities.
For the past few months, the Infometrics team has been fully occupied with modelling the effects of the pandemic on the national economy, and on the local economies and individual operations of our clients.
In this article, Alistair Schorn takes a closer look at Infometrics Wellbeing Framework developed in 2019 to evaluate the wellbeing of New Zealand’s communities.
Infometrics welcomes Senior Economist Alistair Schorn . Alistair joined Infometrics in February and it feels like a lot has happened since then!
The latest Infometrics Quarterly Economic Monitor shows the first signs of New Zealand’s economic slowdown as the COVID-19 pandemic and recession changes the way that businesses, households, and government operates.
We will be hosting regular webinars (web seminars) for our clients. If your organisation would like to book a tailored Webinar, focused on your local area, sector or industry, we have time slots available.