The COVID-19 pandemic has had major ramifications for the New Zealand economy and put a spotlight on the structure of local economies. One of the key determinants of how regional economies are performing is how much of a focus they have on either of the tourism or primary sectors. But a bigger issue looms for some areas, with some key industrial players rapidly reassessing their future, which could remove a substantial chunk of activity from some local economies.
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Here is list of Infometrics’ latest mentions in the media.
ARTICLES
Migration, huh! (What is it good for?)
Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, migration movements have presented themselves as a puzzling aspect of New Zealand’s economic path forward. Migration has many effects on both the labour market and the wider economy, and will remain a key, but rapidly changing, factor moving ahead, so it’s worth paying attention to.
The world still needs to eat
Although the movement of people across the globe has come to a near standstill, New Zealand’s exports mean that we still have a large connection to the outside world. Revenue from goods exports are income for many New Zealanders and have thankfully been quite resilient to the effects of COVID-19. It’s hard finding cheerful good news stories during a global pandemic and subsequent global recession.
Pizza in schools: a policy nirvana?
At Infometrics we are often amazed, even annoyed, at ill-considered policy proposals that are targeted at solving a single issue, without recognising the law of unintended consequences – both positive and negative.
Chart of the Month: Job losses to hit renters first
It’s abundantly clear that the COVID-19 pandemic and economic downturn isn’t hitting all groups equally, with job losses more concentrated among groups like Māori, young people, and women. Infometrics analysis has also determined that many who are facing job losses are likely to be renters.
Auckland lockdown affecting tourism around the country
Auckland is home to a third of the country’s population, so with the region under Level 3 lockdown, the flow of visitors to all of the country is affected.
This pandemic is not over yet – not by a long shot
The announcement of community transmission of COVID-19 in August has been a reality check on our progress towards recovery. With Auckland now under Alert Level 3 restrictions, and the rest of New Zealand at Alert Level 2, the economic outlook has turned darker. This note provides our initial analysis of the economic effects of the changes, as well as an update on how our view of the economic outlook is changing.
Chart of the month – Where did you come from, where did you go?
The New Zealand border has been closed since March, and with it, international tourism has all but vanished. International arrivals in July were 98% lower than a year ago, with only 3,521 arrivals. But even though there aren’t many new visitors arriving, there are quite a few still in New Zealand. Data published by StatsNZ estimates there to be somewhere between 90,000 and 140,000 international tourists currently residing across the country, which has implications for employment and support needs.
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Media release: Pandemic delivers severe hit to regions
The latest Infometrics Quarterly Economic Monitor shows a substantial hit to regional economies from the COVID-19 pandemic and New Zealand’s restrictions during the Level 4 lockdown alongside the move down the Alert Levels. The Monitor provides the most comprehensive analysis of regional economic changes so far during the pandemic.