This election, we’ve brought back the Infometrics Misery Index, which looks at the state of the economy compared to previous New Zealand governments, to provide a sense test of how the electorate might be feeling in the lead-up to September 23.
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New research released today by Infometrics suggests that we might currently be underestimating net migration by between 4,000 and 8,000 people per year. These figures imply that net migration could be closer to 80,000pa than the latest official measure of 72,300.
Auckland Council’s estimate that only 6,260 new dwelling units were completed during 2016 earlier this week came as shock given previous indications of the amount of residential building activity taking place in the city. Consent numbers for Auckland in the last calendar year totalled 10,026, while Statistics NZ published figures earlier in July estimating that 7,872 dwellings were completed in the city during 2016.
It is Got a Trade Week, where a wide range of training and career opportunities in the trades and services industries are highlighted. But why focus on raising awareness of the trades and services industries? Simply put, they are industries that we can’t afford to ignore. Overall, they account for 75% of all employment in New Zealand!
Brad Olsen has only just reached his 20s and he’s met Queen Elizabeth II twice! He’s our youngest economist and is already making his mark both at Infometrics and in youth politics.
We chat with Brad about what a day in the life of an economist looks like…
New data from Statistics NZ shows that migration, as we currently track it, is not always representative of true long-term migration. Using this information, we know that net migration in 2003 was severely underestimated. Given current labour market conditions and the attraction for both foreigners and returning New Zealanders to stick around, we believe that long-term net migration could currently be underestimated by 4,000-8,000 people.
New Zealand has gained around 72,000 more people in the past year according to arrival card data, and we’re feeling the strain of squeezing all these extra people into our cities. But further analysis of visa data suggests that there are longer-term implications for these high arrival levels that, if left unchecked, could pose a problem for policymakers when we come off the high point in the business cycle.
The government has been successively tightening the rules for resident visas since October 2016. The purpose of these rule changes ostensibly is to reduce the number of people moving to New Zealand while not cutting off the supply of workers for our overstretched labour market. But each set of rule changes will have very different effects for migrants on work and resident visas. In this article, we outline the rule changes and discuss the implications of these changes for migration numbers and industry stakeholders.
Infometrics estimates that over the coming decade, net migration of between 10,500 and 16,600pa appears to be appropriate to maintaining New Zealand’s population growth relative to world growth. However, with net migration currently sitting at 72,300pa, a gradual approach to pulling back the numbers means that it could be seven years or longer before net migration sits within this range.
There has been a significant body of research over the last decade into the effects of immigration on various aspects of the New Zealand economy, much of it done by Motu, as well as the Reserve Bank, Treasury, or in conjunction with the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment. Some of the key findings from this research include the following.