free lunch
Recent releases
Economic
Exports / imports 27/01/2012
Dec 11 | annual balance: $555m
Monetary policy 26/01/2012
Jan 12 | OCR: 2.50% (prev. 2.50%)
CPI - inflation 19/01/2012
Dec qtr 11 | a.p.c: 1.8%
GDP 22/12/2011
Sep qtr 11 | production a.a.p.c: 1.3%
Tourism 21/12/2011
Nov 11 | arrivals a.p.c: 1.7%
Balance of payments 21/12/2011
Sep qtr 11 | deficit as % of GDP: 4.3%
Manufacturing 8/12/2011
Sep qtr 11 | real output q.p.c: 4.2%
Terms of trade 1/12/2011
Sep qtr 11 | a.p.c: 3.3%
Producer prices 17/11/2011
Sep qtr 11 | inputs a.p.c: 4.7%
Retail sales 14/11/2011
Sep qtr 11 | excl. auto volume a.p.c: 5.6%
Government accounts 10/11/2011
Sep qtr 11 | OBEGAL ytd: -$2.5bn
Employment 3/11/2011
Sep qtr 11 | unemployment rate: 6.6%
Borrowing / lending 1/11/2011
Sep qtr 11 | housing debt a.p.c: 1.2%
Labour market 1/11/2011
Sep qtr 11 | Unadjusted LCI a.p.c: 3.3%
Fiscal update 26/10/2011
Oct 11 | OBEGAL ye forecast: -$10.8bn
Dec 11 | annual balance: $555m
Monetary policy 26/01/2012
Jan 12 | OCR: 2.50% (prev. 2.50%)
CPI - inflation 19/01/2012
Dec qtr 11 | a.p.c: 1.8%
GDP 22/12/2011
Sep qtr 11 | production a.a.p.c: 1.3%
Tourism 21/12/2011
Nov 11 | arrivals a.p.c: 1.7%
Balance of payments 21/12/2011
Sep qtr 11 | deficit as % of GDP: 4.3%
Manufacturing 8/12/2011
Sep qtr 11 | real output q.p.c: 4.2%
Terms of trade 1/12/2011
Sep qtr 11 | a.p.c: 3.3%
Producer prices 17/11/2011
Sep qtr 11 | inputs a.p.c: 4.7%
Retail sales 14/11/2011
Sep qtr 11 | excl. auto volume a.p.c: 5.6%
Government accounts 10/11/2011
Sep qtr 11 | OBEGAL ytd: -$2.5bn
Employment 3/11/2011
Sep qtr 11 | unemployment rate: 6.6%
Borrowing / lending 1/11/2011
Sep qtr 11 | housing debt a.p.c: 1.2%
Labour market 1/11/2011
Sep qtr 11 | Unadjusted LCI a.p.c: 3.3%
Fiscal update 26/10/2011
Oct 11 | OBEGAL ye forecast: -$10.8bn
BuildingResidential rents 26/01/2012
Dec qtr 11 | a.p.c. 2.4%
House sales 18/01/2012
Dec 11 | a.p.c: 20.9%
Non-residential building 10/01/2012
Nov 11 | value a.p.c: -13.5%
New dwellings 10/01/2012
Nov 11 | excl. apart a.p.c: 2.5%
House prices 10/01/2012
Dec 11 | a.p.c: 2.4%
Migration 21/12/2011
Nov 11 | annual (net): -568
Work put in place 5/12/2011
Sep qtr 11 | total real q.p.c: -2.3%
Building / vehicle costs 17/11/2011
Sep qtr 11 | residential a.p.c: 1.4%
Dec qtr 11 | a.p.c. 2.4%
House sales 18/01/2012
Dec 11 | a.p.c: 20.9%
Non-residential building 10/01/2012
Nov 11 | value a.p.c: -13.5%
New dwellings 10/01/2012
Nov 11 | excl. apart a.p.c: 2.5%
House prices 10/01/2012
Dec 11 | a.p.c: 2.4%
Migration 21/12/2011
Nov 11 | annual (net): -568
Work put in place 5/12/2011
Sep qtr 11 | total real q.p.c: -2.3%
Building / vehicle costs 17/11/2011
Sep qtr 11 | residential a.p.c: 1.4%
TransportTransport update January 2012
(27/01/2012)
Transport update December 2011
(19/12/2011)
Transport update November 2011
(24/11/2011)
Transport update September 2011
(21/10/2011)
Transport update August 2011
(22/08/2011)
Transport update July 2011
(26/07/2011)
(27/01/2012)
Transport update December 2011
(19/12/2011)
Transport update November 2011
(24/11/2011)
Transport update September 2011
(21/10/2011)
Transport update August 2011
(22/08/2011)
Transport update July 2011
(26/07/2011)
RetailRetail Report, November 2011
(1/12/2011)
Retail Report, October 2011
(31/10/2011)
Retail Report, September 2011
(30/09/2011)
Retail Report, August 2011
(31/08/2011)
Retail Report, June 2011
(1/07/2011)
Retail Report, May 2011
(31/05/2011)
(1/12/2011)
Retail Report, October 2011
(31/10/2011)
Retail Report, September 2011
(30/09/2011)
Retail Report, August 2011
(31/08/2011)
Retail Report, June 2011
(1/07/2011)
Retail Report, May 2011
(31/05/2011)
A bounty of white gold 27/01/2012Dec 11 | annual balance: $555m
The annual trade surplus rose substantially to $1.1bn in December, up from $557m in November. This result was driven by strong growth in exports, particularly in the dairy sector. While this sharp lift in the annual trade surplus was a pleasant surprise, we expect deteriorating global growth to limit the potential for further improvements to the trade balance.
Balancing the risks 26/01/2012Jan 12 | OCR: 2.50% (prev. 2.50%)
The Reserve Bank left the official cash rate on hold at 2.5% today. The Bank pointed to a myriad of factors that have either improved or deteriorated since December, but overall the Bank's outlook for interest rates appears to be relatively unchanged.
Commentary
Articles
Who should pay for the failure of those deemed too big to fail
(22/12/2011)
Christchurch’s population loss
(21/12/2011)
Getting past the emotional rhetoric around asset sales
(16/12/2011)
Charter schools are a welcome addition
(9/12/2011)
Replacing that old bomb
(2/12/2011)
(22/12/2011)
Christchurch’s population loss
(21/12/2011)
Getting past the emotional rhetoric around asset sales
(16/12/2011)
Charter schools are a welcome addition
(9/12/2011)
Replacing that old bomb
(2/12/2011)
Financial
The good, the bad, and the ugly
(20/01/2012)
Good news from Europe, but there's a lot more to do yet
(13/01/2012)
A sense of déjà vu
(22/12/2011)
How much is Europe holding us back?
(16/12/2011)
(20/01/2012)
Good news from Europe, but there's a lot more to do yet
(13/01/2012)
A sense of déjà vu
(22/12/2011)
How much is Europe holding us back?
(16/12/2011)
International
Setting a low target 27/01/2012The Federal Reserve decided this week to hold the federal funds rate at between 0-0.25%. However, accompanying this decision was the surprise revelation that the Fed intends to hold its target rate at this exceptionally low level until at least the end of 2014. This date is much later than the mid-2013 commitment which the Fed reaffirmed in its last monetary policy decision in December and is an unprecedented pledge to maintain such an extended period of loose monetary policy.
Financial weekly: PDF | Calendar | Strategy | Graphs
Paying for that inheritance27/01/2012There is no question of a doubt that a dignified level of care must be provided to the elderly, whatever the cost, however it is unreasonable that the public sector should bear the cost for those that can afford to do so themselves. At present single people and couples with both partners in care can keep $210,000 in assets before their assets are used to contribute to the cost of the care (this threshold is increased by $10,000 each year).
From the beach 201213/01/2012New Zealand businesses and consumers have ended 2011 less confident about their prospects than they were at the end of 2010. The risks posed by the European debt crisis have eroded much of the optimism that was building in the middle of last year. There’s also a worrying disconnect between business and consumer confidence – consumer confidence is well below that of businesses and raises questions about how patchy spending growth will be this coming year.
November 11 forecasts
EconomicPDF |Tables Slides
Executive Summary
Forecast Story
Background Assumptions
Developing world
Developed world
Export prices
Import prices
Balance of payments
Population growth
Fiscal policy
Business Conditions
Availability of labour
Labour costs
Other business costs
Investment costs
Financing costs
Exchange rate
Pricing power
Profitability
Economic Activity
Household spending
Government spending
Building activity
Business investment (ex-building)
Export volumes
Import volumes
Executive Summary
Forecast Story
Background Assumptions
Developing world
Developed world
Export prices
Import prices
Balance of payments
Population growth
Fiscal policy
Business Conditions
Availability of labour
Labour costs
Other business costs
Investment costs
Financing costs
Exchange rate
Pricing power
Profitability
Economic Activity
Household spending
Government spending
Building activity
Business investment (ex-building)
Export volumes
Import volumes
BuildingPDF |TablesSlides
Executive Summary
Forecast Story
Background Drivers
Population growth
Financing costs
Availability of labour
Household spending
Government spending
Tourism
Building costs
Residential Building And Property
Rents
House sales
House prices
Underlying demand
New dwellings
Apartments
Additions and alterations
Non-Res Building And Property
Non-residential prices
Miscellaneous building
Commercial building
Education building
Industrial building
Accommodation building
Hospital building
Infrastructure
Executive Summary
Forecast Story
Background Drivers
Population growth
Financing costs
Availability of labour
Household spending
Government spending
Tourism
Building costs
Residential Building And Property
Rents
House sales
House prices
Underlying demand
New dwellings
Apartments
Additions and alterations
Non-Res Building And Property
Non-residential prices
Miscellaneous building
Commercial building
Education building
Industrial building
Accommodation building
Hospital building
Infrastructure
Transport
RetailPDF |Tables
Executive Summary
Forecast Story
Business Conditions
Consumer Demand
Labour market
Income growth
Housing market
Net migration
Tourism
Retail Sector
Retail history
Total retail outlook
Risks to outlook
Sector outlook
Durable good outlook
Clothing and footwear outlook
Supermarket and specialty
Regional retail
Financing costs
Labour costs
Other business costs
Profitability
Exchange rate
Executive Summary
Forecast Story
Business Conditions
Consumer Demand
Labour market
Income growth
Housing market
Net migration
Tourism
Retail Sector
Retail history
Total retail outlook
Risks to outlook
Sector outlook
Durable good outlook
Clothing and footwear outlook
Supermarket and specialty
Regional retail
Financing costs
Labour costs
Other business costs
Profitability
Exchange rate
Appearances can be deceptive | Executive SummaryPDFIt’s been more than three years since the collapse of
Lehman Brothers, and spectators to the world economy remain as dumbfounded as
ever. Just when it appeared that the global financial fiasco had finally ended,
Europe has done its best to come up with another suspense-filled act.
Forecast StoryThe European debt crisis is causing uncertainty across financial markets, undermining growth prospects both offshore and in New Zealand. The weaker outlook for developed economies presents risks for Asia and Australasia growth, but the biggest effect on New Zealand may be felt in less fluid credit markets. Renewed reluctance to boost investment and employment is likely to delay any substantial pick-up in household spending. When this setback is combined with the possible delays in getting Christchurch’s rebuild underway, we have significantly revised down our forecast of average GDP growth over the three years to March 2014 from 3.6% to 2.9%pa.
Background AssumptionsThe continuing inability of European authorities to
resolve the fiscal crisis brewing among the so-called PIIGS is weighing heavily
on European growth prospects. The uncertainty surrounding the situation will
affect business investment and consumer confidence in the region. At the same
time, the US recovery continues to dawdle, and we have shaved a total of 2.2
percentage points off our forecasts for US growth across 2011 and 2012.
Developing worldThe slowdown in the US and Europe will hurt demand for
products out of China and India, but rising domestic demand in these countries
will pick up some of the slack.
Developed worldDawdling by policy makers in Europe and a run of weak
economic data out of the US have led us to revise down our growth outlook for
developing countries.
Infometrics affiliates
