Recent releases
Economic
Producer prices 16/05/2008
Mar qtr 08 | inputs a.p.c: 7.4%
Retail sales 15/05/2008
Mar qtr 08 | excl. auto a.p.c: -0.7%
Employment 8/05/2008
Mar qtr 08 | unemployment rate: 3.6%
Government accounts 7/05/2008
Mar qtr 08 | OBEGAL ytd: $4.63bn
Labour market 5/05/2008
Mar qtr 08 | LCI a.p.c: 5.4%
Borrowing / lending 29/04/2008
Mar qtr 08 | housing debt a.p.c: 11.1%
Exports / imports 29/04/2008
Mar 08 | annual balance: -$4.53bn
Monetary policy 24/04/2008
Apr 08 | OCR: 8.25% (prev. 8.25%)
Tourism 22/04/2008
Mar 08 | arrivals a.p.c: 4.9%
CPI - inflation 15/04/2008
Mar qtr 08 | a.p.c: 3.4%
GDP 28/03/2008
Dec qtr 07 | production a.a.p.c: 3.1%
Balance of payments 27/03/2008
Dec qtr 07 | deficit as % of GDP: 7.9%
Manufacturing 14/03/2008
Dec qtr 07 | real output q.p.c: 5.5%
Terms of trade 11/03/2008
Dec qtr 07 | a.p.c: 8.8%
Fiscal update 18/12/2007
Dec 07 | OBEGAL ye forecast: $6.02bn

Mar qtr 08 | inputs a.p.c: 7.4%
Retail sales 15/05/2008
Mar qtr 08 | excl. auto a.p.c: -0.7%
Employment 8/05/2008
Mar qtr 08 | unemployment rate: 3.6%
Government accounts 7/05/2008
Mar qtr 08 | OBEGAL ytd: $4.63bn
Labour market 5/05/2008
Mar qtr 08 | LCI a.p.c: 5.4%
Borrowing / lending 29/04/2008
Mar qtr 08 | housing debt a.p.c: 11.1%
Exports / imports 29/04/2008
Mar 08 | annual balance: -$4.53bn
Monetary policy 24/04/2008
Apr 08 | OCR: 8.25% (prev. 8.25%)
Tourism 22/04/2008
Mar 08 | arrivals a.p.c: 4.9%
CPI - inflation 15/04/2008
Mar qtr 08 | a.p.c: 3.4%
GDP 28/03/2008
Dec qtr 07 | production a.a.p.c: 3.1%
Balance of payments 27/03/2008
Dec qtr 07 | deficit as % of GDP: 7.9%
Manufacturing 14/03/2008
Dec qtr 07 | real output q.p.c: 5.5%
Terms of trade 11/03/2008
Dec qtr 07 | a.p.c: 8.8%
Fiscal update 18/12/2007
Dec 07 | OBEGAL ye forecast: $6.02bn
Building
Building / vehicle costs 16/05/2008
Mar qtr 08 | residential a.p.c: 5.0%
House sales 12/05/2008
Apr 08 | a.p.c: -45.5%
House prices 12/05/2008
Apr 08 | a.p.c: 4.9%
Non-residential building 30/04/2008
Mar 08 | value a.p.c: -14.2%
New dwellings 30/04/2008
Mar 08 | excl. apart a.p.c: -27.0%
Migration 22/04/2008
Mar 08 | annual (net): 4,678
Residential rents 11/04/2008
Mar qtr 08 | a.p.c. 7.1%
Work put in place 7/03/2008
Dec qtr 07 | total real q.p.c: 3.9%

Mar qtr 08 | residential a.p.c: 5.0%
House sales 12/05/2008
Apr 08 | a.p.c: -45.5%
House prices 12/05/2008
Apr 08 | a.p.c: 4.9%
Non-residential building 30/04/2008
Mar 08 | value a.p.c: -14.2%
New dwellings 30/04/2008
Mar 08 | excl. apart a.p.c: -27.0%
Migration 22/04/2008
Mar 08 | annual (net): 4,678
Residential rents 11/04/2008
Mar qtr 08 | a.p.c. 7.1%
Work put in place 7/03/2008
Dec qtr 07 | total real q.p.c: 3.9%
Transport
Transport update, March 2008
(22/04/2008)
Transport update, February 2008
(14/03/2008)
Transport update, January 2008
(19/02/2008)
Transport update, December 2007
(22/01/2008)
Transport update, November 2007
(12/12/2007)
Transport update, October 2007
(19/11/2007)

(22/04/2008)
Transport update, February 2008
(14/03/2008)
Transport update, January 2008
(19/02/2008)
Transport update, December 2007
(22/01/2008)
Transport update, November 2007
(12/12/2007)
Transport update, October 2007
(19/11/2007)
Retail
Retail Report, April 2008
(30/04/2008)
Retail Report, March 2008
(28/03/2008)
Retail Report, February 2008
(29/02/2008)
Retail Report, January 2008
(7/02/2008)
Retail Report, December 2007
(21/12/2007)
Retail Report, November 2007
(27/11/2007)

(30/04/2008)
Retail Report, March 2008
(28/03/2008)
Retail Report, February 2008
(29/02/2008)
Retail Report, January 2008
(7/02/2008)
Retail Report, December 2007
(21/12/2007)
Retail Report, November 2007
(27/11/2007)
High exchange rate controls building and transport costs 16/05/2008Mar qtr 08 | residential a.p.c: 5.0%
The capital goods price index rose by 0.5% in the March quarter, taking annual growth in the index to 2.5%. The lift in residential building costs over the quarter was the main factor contributing to the increase in the index – with costs up 0.9% on December.
Cost pressures more difficult to pass on 16/05/2008Mar qtr 08 | inputs a.p.c: 7.4%
Businesses’ input prices rose 2.3% over the first quarter of 2008. Over the same period, output prices climbed 1.8%, implying that margins are being squeezed across much of the economy.
Retail volumes slide as prices climb 15/05/2008Mar qtr 08 | excl. auto a.p.c: -0.7%
The volume of total retail sales fell by a massive 1.2% over the March quarter (seasonally adjusted) as motor vehicle retailing fell by 6.0%. The 1.2% slide in sales was the largest quarterly fall since March 1997. Core retail sales (sales excluding the automotive subsectors) performed more admirably, rising by 0.2% on December (seasonally adjusted).
Commentary
Articles
Natural hazards, unnatural disasters
(9/05/2008)
Where house sales go, prices don't necessarily follow
(2/05/2008)
Congested Thinking about Congestion Charging
(24/04/2008)
GST cuts and Dr Cullen's conditions
(17/04/2008)
Looking South
(15/04/2008)

(9/05/2008)
Where house sales go, prices don't necessarily follow
(2/05/2008)
Congested Thinking about Congestion Charging
(24/04/2008)
GST cuts and Dr Cullen's conditions
(17/04/2008)
Looking South
(15/04/2008)
Financial
Reluctantly, we concede to early rate cuts
(9/05/2008)
That's all folks
(2/05/2008)
Deep breaths, Doctor Bollard
(24/04/2008)
Dont look to Reserve Bank for rescue
(18/04/2008)

(9/05/2008)
That's all folks
(2/05/2008)
Deep breaths, Doctor Bollard
(24/04/2008)
Dont look to Reserve Bank for rescue
(18/04/2008)
International

What goes up must come down (except inflation) 16/05/2008It's usually hard to pick turning points, but sometimes they are staring you in the face. Such is the case in New Zealand at the moment. Falling employment, falling retail sales and falling house prices – the New Zealand economy appears to be in a period of recession or near-recession. The first interest rate cut in five years is on the way in (or by) September, and the New Zealand dollar’s decline is finally underway. Banks have even started the easing party early, with the average two-year fixed mortgage rate down to 9.4%, from 9.9% two months ago.
Financial weekly: PDF | Calendar | Strategy | Graphs
Newsflash: people better off!16/05/2008We’ve recently been bombarded by tales of average Kiwi families battling with rising mortgages and sharply higher prices for food and petrol. But is it really the case that New Zealanders are worse off now than they were a few years ago?
What price peak oil?15/05/2008Long-time readers of our forecasts will
probably be aware that, over the last seven years, we have typically expected
world oil prices to settle back down over the medium-term, usually US$10-15
below the prevailing level when we’ve been preparing the forecasts. Such a
view has not been out of line with the received wisdom. Consensus forecasts
for oil prices over the same period have generally tracked the current oil
price with some downward adjustment expected over the coming year to bring oil
prices back to more “normal” levels. The futures market has generally been a
little less sure of any reversal in prices, but even so, an oil price of
US$120/bl was never on anyone’s radar even 12 months ago.
March 08 forecasts
Economic

Building

Transport

Retail

Blame it on the (lack of) rain | Economic OutlookPDFSince our previous forecasts, the rural
sector has gone from making hay while the sun shines on global commodity prices
to praying for a downpour to prevent a substantial economic slowdown. Drought
conditions have lowered our forecasts for export production, but global demand
is also threatening to dry up. We forecast economic growth of 1.9% over
2008/09 and 2.3% over 2009/10, knocking an average of 0.8 percentage points off
GDP growth for each of the next two years.
Forecast StoryDrought and a more uncertain global
environment have conspired to undermine prospects for economic growth over the
coming year. The former is probably more pivotal to New Zealand’s prospects,
as the expected stimulus from high dairy prices this season fails to be fully
realised. Other domestic indicators, from the housing market and retail
sector, suggest the economy is slowing a little more rapidly than expected,
although the labour market remains tight and inflation pressures are
persisting. The government will do its best to stimulate economic growth ahead
of the election, but households will take a more cautious spending approach
throughout much of 2008. Combine soft consumption growth with weather and currency-related
encumbrances for the export sector, and we expect GDP growth to average little
more than 2%pa over the next two years.




