Setting to 1 Infometrics Ltd SELECT * FROM ipaccess WHERE ip = '38.103.63.18'

Recent releases

Economic
Producer prices 16/05/2008
Mar qtr 08 | inputs a.p.c: 7.4%
Retail sales 15/05/2008
Mar qtr 08 | excl. auto a.p.c: -0.7%
Employment 8/05/2008
Mar qtr 08 | unemployment rate: 3.6%
Government accounts 7/05/2008
Mar qtr 08 | OBEGAL ytd: $4.63bn
Labour market 5/05/2008
Mar qtr 08 | LCI a.p.c: 5.4%
Borrowing / lending 29/04/2008
Mar qtr 08 | housing debt a.p.c: 11.1%
Exports / imports 29/04/2008
Mar 08 | annual balance: -$4.53bn
Monetary policy 24/04/2008
Apr 08 | OCR: 8.25% (prev. 8.25%)
Tourism 22/04/2008
Mar 08 | arrivals a.p.c: 4.9%
CPI - inflation 15/04/2008
Mar qtr 08 | a.p.c: 3.4%
GDP 28/03/2008
Dec qtr 07 | production a.a.p.c: 3.1%
Balance of payments 27/03/2008
Dec qtr 07 | deficit as % of GDP: 7.9%
Manufacturing 14/03/2008
Dec qtr 07 | real output q.p.c: 5.5%
Terms of trade 11/03/2008
Dec qtr 07 | a.p.c: 8.8%
Fiscal update 18/12/2007
Dec 07 | OBEGAL ye forecast: $6.02bn

Building
Building / vehicle costs 16/05/2008
Mar qtr 08 | residential a.p.c: 5.0%
House sales 12/05/2008
Apr 08 | a.p.c: -45.5%
House prices 12/05/2008
Apr 08 | a.p.c: 4.9%
Non-residential building 30/04/2008
Mar 08 | value a.p.c: -14.2%
New dwellings 30/04/2008
Mar 08 | excl. apart a.p.c: -27.0%
Migration 22/04/2008
Mar 08 | annual (net): 4,678
Residential rents 11/04/2008
Mar qtr 08 | a.p.c. 7.1%
Work put in place 7/03/2008
Dec qtr 07 | total real q.p.c: 3.9%

Transport
Transport update, March 2008
(22/04/2008)
Transport update, February 2008
(14/03/2008)
Transport update, January 2008
(19/02/2008)
Transport update, December 2007
(22/01/2008)
Transport update, November 2007
(12/12/2007)
Transport update, October 2007
(19/11/2007)

Retail
Retail Report, April 2008
(30/04/2008)
Retail Report, March 2008
(28/03/2008)
Retail Report, February 2008
(29/02/2008)
Retail Report, January 2008
(7/02/2008)
Retail Report, December 2007
(21/12/2007)
Retail Report, November 2007
(27/11/2007)

Building / vehicle costsHigh exchange rate controls building and transport costs 16/05/2008
Mar qtr 08 | residential a.p.c: 5.0%
The capital goods price index rose by 0.5% in the March quarter, taking annual growth in the index to 2.5%. The lift in residential building costs over the quarter was the main factor contributing to the increase in the index – with costs up 0.9% on December.
Producer pricesCost pressures more difficult to pass on 16/05/2008
Mar qtr 08 | inputs a.p.c: 7.4%
Businesses’ input prices rose 2.3% over the first quarter of 2008. Over the same period, output prices climbed 1.8%, implying that margins are being squeezed across much of the economy.
Retail salesRetail volumes slide as prices climb 15/05/2008
Mar qtr 08 | excl. auto a.p.c: -0.7%
The volume of total retail sales fell by a massive 1.2% over the March quarter (seasonally adjusted) as motor vehicle retailing fell by 6.0%. The 1.2% slide in sales was the largest quarterly fall since March 1997. Core retail sales (sales excluding the automotive subsectors) performed more admirably, rising by 0.2% on December (seasonally adjusted).

Commentary

Articles
Natural hazards, unnatural disasters
(9/05/2008)
Where house sales go, prices don't necessarily follow
(2/05/2008)
Congested Thinking about Congestion Charging
(24/04/2008)
GST cuts and Dr Cullen's conditions
(17/04/2008)
Looking South
(15/04/2008)

Financial
Reluctantly, we concede to early rate cuts
(9/05/2008)
That's all folks
(2/05/2008)
Deep breaths, Doctor Bollard
(24/04/2008)
Don’t look to Reserve Bank for rescue
(18/04/2008)

International
NZ monthly
NZ quarterly
United States
Europe
Japan
Australia
United Kingdom

Financial weeklyWhat goes up must come down (except inflation) 16/05/2008
It's usually hard to pick turning points, but sometimes they are staring you in the face. Such is the case in New Zealand at the moment. Falling employment, falling retail sales and falling house prices – the New Zealand economy appears to be in a period of recession or near-recession. The first interest rate cut in five years is on the way in (or by) September, and the New Zealand dollar’s decline is finally underway. Banks have even started the easing party early, with the average two-year fixed mortgage rate down to 9.4%, from 9.9% two months ago.

Financial weekly: PDF | Calendar | Strategy | Graphs
Newsflash: people better off!16/05/2008
We’ve recently been bombarded by tales of average Kiwi families battling with rising mortgages and sharply higher prices for food and petrol. But is it really the case that New Zealanders are worse off now than they were a few years ago?
What price peak oil?15/05/2008
Long-time readers of our forecasts will probably be aware that, over the last seven years, we have typically expected world oil prices to settle back down over the medium-term, usually US$10-15 below the prevailing level when we’ve been preparing the forecasts. Such a view has not been out of line with the received wisdom. Consensus forecasts for oil prices over the same period have generally tracked the current oil price with some downward adjustment expected over the coming year to bring oil prices back to more “normal” levels. The futures market has generally been a little less sure of any reversal in prices, but even so, an oil price of US$120/bl was never on anyone’s radar even 12 months ago.

March 08 forecasts

Economic
PDF |Tables |Seminar
Economic Outlook
Forecast Story
Household Forecasts
Business Issues Forecasts
Financial Market Forecasts
Fiscal Forecasts
External Forecasts
International Forecasts

Building
PDF |Tables |Seminar
Economic Outlook
Population and Demographics
Residential Property Market
New House Construction
Non-Residential Property
Non-Residential Construction

Transport
PDF |Seminar
Economic Outlook
Transport Activity and Prices
The Car Market
Residual Values
Sectors
Commercial Vehicles

Retail
PDF
Economic Outlook
The Home Front
Population and Demographics
Total Retail Forecasts
Store-Type Forecasts

Blame it on the (lack of) rain | Economic OutlookPDF
Since our previous forecasts, the rural sector has gone from making hay while the sun shines on global commodity prices to praying for a downpour to prevent a substantial economic slowdown.  Drought conditions have lowered our forecasts for export production, but global demand is also threatening to dry up.  We forecast economic growth of 1.9% over 2008/09 and 2.3% over 2009/10, knocking an average of 0.8 percentage points off GDP growth for each of the next two years.
Forecast Story
Drought and a more uncertain global environment have conspired to undermine prospects for economic growth over the coming year. The former is probably more pivotal to New Zealand’s prospects, as the expected stimulus from high dairy prices this season fails to be fully realised. Other domestic indicators, from the housing market and retail sector, suggest the economy is slowing a little more rapidly than expected, although the labour market remains tight and inflation pressures are persisting. The government will do its best to stimulate economic growth ahead of the election, but households will take a more cautious spending approach throughout much of 2008. Combine soft consumption growth with weather and currency-related encumbrances for the export sector, and we expect GDP growth to average little more than 2%pa over the next two years.

Infometrics affiliates

Gareth Morgan Investments Gareth Morgan KiwiSaver Morgan Family Charitable Foundation Infometrics Property