free lunch
Recent releases
Economic
Employment 4/02/2010
Dec qtr 09 | unemployment rate: 7.3%
Tourism 4/02/2010
Dec 09 | arrivals a.p.c: 5.9%
Labour market 2/02/2010
Dec qtr 09 | Unadjusted LCI a.p.c: 2.9%
Exports / imports 29/01/2010
Dec 09 | annual balance: -$517m
Borrowing / lending 28/01/2010
Dec qtr 09 | housing debt a.p.c: 3.3%
Monetary policy 28/01/2010
Jan 10 | OCR: 2.50% (prev. 2.50%)
Retail sales 21/01/2010
Nov 09 | excl. auto a.p.c: 3.7%
CPI - inflation 20/01/2010
Dec qtr 09 | a.p.c: 2.0%
GDP 23/12/2009
Sep qtr 09 | production a.a.p.c: -2.2%
Balance of payments 22/12/2009
Sep qtr 09 | deficit as % of GDP: 3.1%
Fiscal update 15/12/2009
Dec 09 | OBEGAL ye forecast: -$7.47bn
Terms of trade 10/12/2009
Sep qtr 09 | a.p.c: -13.7%
Manufacturing 8/12/2009
Sep qtr 09 | real output q.p.c: -2.2%
Producer prices 16/11/2009
Sep qtr 09 | inputs a.p.c: -5.8%
Government accounts 4/11/2009
Sep qtr 09 | OBEGAL ytd: -$2.02bn
Dec qtr 09 | unemployment rate: 7.3%
Tourism 4/02/2010
Dec 09 | arrivals a.p.c: 5.9%
Labour market 2/02/2010
Dec qtr 09 | Unadjusted LCI a.p.c: 2.9%
Exports / imports 29/01/2010
Dec 09 | annual balance: -$517m
Borrowing / lending 28/01/2010
Dec qtr 09 | housing debt a.p.c: 3.3%
Monetary policy 28/01/2010
Jan 10 | OCR: 2.50% (prev. 2.50%)
Retail sales 21/01/2010
Nov 09 | excl. auto a.p.c: 3.7%
CPI - inflation 20/01/2010
Dec qtr 09 | a.p.c: 2.0%
GDP 23/12/2009
Sep qtr 09 | production a.a.p.c: -2.2%
Balance of payments 22/12/2009
Sep qtr 09 | deficit as % of GDP: 3.1%
Fiscal update 15/12/2009
Dec 09 | OBEGAL ye forecast: -$7.47bn
Terms of trade 10/12/2009
Sep qtr 09 | a.p.c: -13.7%
Manufacturing 8/12/2009
Sep qtr 09 | real output q.p.c: -2.2%
Producer prices 16/11/2009
Sep qtr 09 | inputs a.p.c: -5.8%
Government accounts 4/11/2009
Sep qtr 09 | OBEGAL ytd: -$2.02bn
BuildingHouse prices 8/02/2010
Jan 10 | a.p.c: 4.4%
Migration 4/02/2010
Dec 09 | annual (net): 21,253
Non-residential building 29/01/2010
Dec 09 | value a.p.c: 5.6%
New dwellings 29/01/2010
Dec 09 | excl. apart a.p.c: 25.9%
House sales 18/01/2010
Dec 09 | a.p.c: 15.2%
Residential rents 18/01/2010
Dec qtr 09 | a.p.c. 1.0%
Work put in place 8/12/2009
Sep qtr 09 | total real q.p.c: -4.9%
Building / vehicle costs 16/11/2009
Sep qtr 09 | residential a.p.c: -1.0%
Jan 10 | a.p.c: 4.4%
Migration 4/02/2010
Dec 09 | annual (net): 21,253
Non-residential building 29/01/2010
Dec 09 | value a.p.c: 5.6%
New dwellings 29/01/2010
Dec 09 | excl. apart a.p.c: 25.9%
House sales 18/01/2010
Dec 09 | a.p.c: 15.2%
Residential rents 18/01/2010
Dec qtr 09 | a.p.c. 1.0%
Work put in place 8/12/2009
Sep qtr 09 | total real q.p.c: -4.9%
Building / vehicle costs 16/11/2009
Sep qtr 09 | residential a.p.c: -1.0%
TransportTransport update, July 2009
(22/01/2010)
Transport update, November 2009
(22/12/2009)
Transport update, November 2009
(23/11/2009)
Transport update, September 2009
(27/10/2009)
Transport update, August 2009
(25/09/2009)
Transport update, July 2009
(19/08/2009)
(22/01/2010)
Transport update, November 2009
(22/12/2009)
Transport update, November 2009
(23/11/2009)
Transport update, September 2009
(27/10/2009)
Transport update, August 2009
(25/09/2009)
Transport update, July 2009
(19/08/2009)
RetailRetail Report, January 2010
(1/02/2010)
Retail Report, November 2009
(7/12/2009)
Retail Report, October 2009
(30/10/2009)
Retail Report, August 2009
(31/08/2009)
Retail Report, July 2009
(3/08/2009)
Retail Report, June 2009
(1/07/2009)
(1/02/2010)
Retail Report, November 2009
(7/12/2009)
Retail Report, October 2009
(30/10/2009)
Retail Report, August 2009
(31/08/2009)
Retail Report, July 2009
(3/08/2009)
Retail Report, June 2009
(1/07/2009)
Auckland keeps a roll on 8/02/2010Jan 10 | a.p.c: 4.4%
House price inflation climbed to 4.4%pa in January, as prices across the country rose 0.6% from December. With urban house price inflation running at 6.2%pa, the gap between urban and nationwide price growth is now at its widest in favour of the urban centres in 14 years.
Rapid increase in unemployment 4/02/2010Dec qtr 09 | unemployment rate: 7.3%
The unemployment rate rose sharply to 7.3% in December, well in excess of market expectations. This unemployment rate was the highest recorded in New Zealand since June 1999. Today’s labour market report was unambiguously weak, and will convince the Reserve Bank to hold off on any official cash rate increases until June 2010.
Commentary
Articles
From the beach 2010
(21/01/2010)
Exorcising the asset sale bogy
(18/12/2009)
Is Georgie Pie the price of having a minimum wage?
(11/12/2009)
Alphabet soup
(4/12/2009)
In defence of the monetary policy scapegoat
(4/12/2009)
(21/01/2010)
Exorcising the asset sale bogy
(18/12/2009)
Is Georgie Pie the price of having a minimum wage?
(11/12/2009)
Alphabet soup
(4/12/2009)
In defence of the monetary policy scapegoat
(4/12/2009)
Financial
Labour market holds the key for rates
(29/01/2010)
A band aid for a broken arm
(22/01/2010)
Quarterly survey of business optimism?
(15/01/2010)
Signs of strength for NZD’s 2010
(8/01/2010)
(29/01/2010)
A band aid for a broken arm
(22/01/2010)
Quarterly survey of business optimism?
(15/01/2010)
Signs of strength for NZD’s 2010
(8/01/2010)
International
Labour market gives pause for thought 5/02/2010Data released yesterday, showing the unemployment rate surging to 7.3% in the December quarter, was a shocker. Market expectations were for a rate of 6.8%, and the actual result was worse than the most pessimistic of estimates. Most analysts saw sufficient weakness in the data to push back the expected timing of the Reserve Bank’s first interest rate rise from April to June.
Financial weekly: PDF | Calendar | Strategy | Graphs
Teaching higher standards5/02/2010With great temerity I would like to discuss the national standards introduced into primary and intermediate schools this week. There has been criticism from a number of quarters that the introduction of the standards will lead to a narrowing of the curriculum and the labelling of children as failures. On the other side there are arguments that greater information is required for parents who wish to know more about the performance of their children.
C'mon John, think of the children29/01/2010The festive season is a time for family and reflection. After a few drinks on Christmas Day, this combination got some of my family musing about future generations. First we started talking about New Zealand’s flaccid emissions trading scheme, the lack of progress at Copenhagen, and finally about living in a world of more than 2 degree temperature rises. The impacts on New Zealand may be manageable, but how might we deal with the global fallout, possibly including refugees from a drought stricken Australia?
November 09 forecasts
Economic
Building
Transport
Retail
Back on the growth train | Economic OutlookPDFAfter 15 months of being buffeted by tornados, the New Zealand economy has emerged from recession and is growing again. At this stage, that growth is still hard to see for domestically focused businesses, but strong confidence surveys show that the economy’s Munchkins are becoming less timid about the future. We expect economic activity to gain momentum in 2010, with growth averaging 3.7%pa over the two years to March 2012.
Forecast StoryThe recession may be over, but it doesn’t
feel like it yet for businesses trying to sell into the domestic economy. But
with confidence improving and substantial monetary stimulus taking effect,
spending growth is set to return with some vigour by mid-2010, and economic
growth could top 4%pa by the end of 2011. Some businesses selling offshore are
still grappling with a high New Zealand dollar, and medium-term prospects for
export volume growth look shaky despite improving commodity prices and the good
performance by China in driving economic growth throughout the Asia-Pacific
region. Noises from the government suggest that policymakers are paying some
attention to the persistent imbalances in the New Zealand economy, but at this
stage we do not anticipate that enough change will occur to remove the
potential for the medium-term crisis that we highlighted in our last set of
forecasts.
Household ForecastsThe catchword in terms of the outlook for
households over the past year has been “rebalancing”. Households appear to
have borrowed too much over the past decade, based on an unrealistic appraisal
of their own wealth (namely house prices). A global recession seemed like the
right time for this imbalance to correct. However, it now appears that
rebalancing will not take place to any great extent. With the exchange rate
climbing, credit availability to households improving, and unemployment
expected to “only” reach 6.7%, a bounce-back in household spending from
mid-2010 is now on the cards.
Business Issues ForecastsFollowing a false dawn for business
confidence in September 2008, which was abruptly interrupted by a global credit
crisis, it appears that firms now generally expect a brighter future around the
corner. And who can blame them, with cost pressures evaporating and demand
conditions improving (albeit from a low base)? As a result, profitability is
starting to stabilise. However, the fact that activity has fallen so far so
fast will ensure that investment levels remain low during the upcoming year.
Financial Markets ForecastsInflation pressures will remain reasonably
benign over the next year given the spare capacity in the economy. But with
the economy now on the mend and interest rates in Australia starting to lift,
the Reserve Bank is coming under increasing pressure to shift the official cash
rate away from its current very stimulatory level. We expect the OCR to be
lifted two percentage points between April and September next year, in contrast
with the Reserve Bank’s assertion that it won’t start raising interest rates
until after the middle of 2010.
Fiscal ForecastsThe recent government accounts for the year
to June 2009 have confirmed the sorry state that the government’s books are
in. The recession has seen expenditure on welfare services blow out, while
taxation revenue has fallen. The fiscal outlook severely limits the prospect
for substantial tax cuts over the next decade, and spending growth will also be
constrained. But we expect slightly stronger economic growth than The Treasury,
which will see the deficits improve faster than Treasury is currently
projecting. Although changes to the tax system are in the pipeline, the
government has so far displayed a lack of willingness to tackle the areas that
would significantly improve efficiency. But National has repeatedly expressed
a desire to reduce the size of government under their watch and, with the state
the books are in, they don’t have much of a choice.
External ForecastsThe terms of trade has eased faster than we
allowed for in our July forecasts, as export earnings were slashed further over
the June quarter. But we still expect weakness in import prices to persist for
longer, and an improvement in export commodity prices will see the terms of
trade strengthen over 2010. Although commodity prices remain low, export
volumes are starting to show signs of improving, particularly for dairy and
forestry products. Demand from China is underpinning this recovery, and will
be an important influence on export volumes over the next three years. Import
volumes are in a stabilisation phase, and are likely to start improving from
early 2010 given improved business and consumer confidence. Consumption and
investment levels will remain relatively weak throughout most of 2010, but
imports are expected to recover sharply in 2011 as the domestic economy
strengthens.
International ForecastsThis time a year ago Lehman Brothers had
just collapsed, and headlines around the world were screaming doom and gloom.
Every worst-case scenario seemed to have eventuated and the only question left
was how bad it would get. The global economy now appears to have turned the
corner, and it’s happening a little earlier than we expected. There have been
some upside data surprises out of the US and China recently. But we still
expect the effects of the recession to linger over the next 12 months as
unemployment remains high and governments around the world begin to roll back
stimulus measures. The size of our potential export market looks to have shrunk
by 0.2% over 2009, but will expand by more than 3%pa over each of the next
three years.
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