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Forecasting
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Forecasting

Debt Money Credit

Economic pressures are getting real for people this year, as higher mortgage rates continue to suck more money out of household budgets, and a swathe of recent job losses undermine income security. Infometrics’ latest economic forecasts show annual GDP and private consumption spending growth briefly... Read


Supermarket shopping

There are currently a lot of moving parts to New Zealand’s economic outlook, as we consider prospects throughout 2024 and into 2025. The challenges to forecasting are nowhere near as pronounced as they were during the Covid-19 pandemic, when the expectations and outcomes were, literally, off the charts. Instead, there are conflicting pressures and signals making it difficult to know which influence will ultimately prevail – conditions that are typical when the economy is at a turning point. Read


Auckland International Airport Arrivals Jan 2024

New Zealand’s economic prospects are brightening, according to Infometrics’ latest forecasts. GDP growth is predicted to average 2.0%pa during 2024 and 2025, which represents a substantial upward revision from the 1.2%pa growth that was being forecast by Infometrics in October last year. This more positive outlook is underpinned by continued high net migration that is set to take longer to retreat from its current record level. Improving business confidence will also lead to more positive outcomes for business investment spending. Read


Soft Landing

The New Zealand economy is on track for the much sought-after “soft landing”, according to Infometrics’ latest forecasts. Although economic activity is set to remain patchy in coming quarters, year-end growth is predicted to bottom out at 0.9% during 2024, which is an upward revision of more than a percentage point from the trough that had been expected earlier this year. Read


Construction scaffolding

For almost forty years, Infometrics has provided predictions across a range of building indicators to both government and private business clients. With activity across the broader economy under pressure, and the construction industry at a turning point, the need for reliable estimates of both the duration and magnitude of the emerging downturn is especially critical. Read


Petrol station

The full fuel excise duty returned on 1 July 2023, which provisionally added 28.5c/L to the domestic price of regular petrol. However, the price of regular petrol was still 53c/L lower than this time last year, as the substantial decline in fuel prices since July 2022 means prices are sharply down even though the fuel tax is no longer discounted. Read


Down and up

Inflationary pressures are finally moderating throughout the New Zealand economy, according to Infometrics’ latest economic forecasts, after two years of costs and prices running out of control. Recent data has shown demand across the economy moderating as higher interest rates and cost-of-living pressures have squeezed household spending. With international inflation also abating, the Reserve Bank is now on track to get inflation back to the top of its 1-3%pa target bank by the end of 2024. Read


Economists are divided on whether GDP data for the March quarter, to be published this week, will show New Zealand in a recession or not. After a 0.6% contraction in the December 2022 quarter, another negative result would meet the technical definition of a recession, being two consecutive quarters of negative growth. But it makes little difference whether the March result is +0.1% or -0.1%: New Zealand is in a phase of much tougher economic conditions after the stimulus-fuelled boom during the COVID-19 pandemic. Read


Swordfight against inflation

There is very little evidence that inflationary pressures have started to moderate yet, despite New Zealand’s economy probably being in a recession that started in the final quarter of 2022. Infometrics’ latest economic forecasts predict that annual inflation will still be 6.6% at the end of 2023 an... Read


Earth globe matrix

Global economic trends have been in sharp focus recently, with attention shifting away from interest rate hikes and onto the global financial system temporarily. But the international economic picture will become increasingly important, as the globe faces some of the weakest economic conditions since the onset of COVID-19 – with a more prolonged hit possible. In this article, we briefly profile how global economic activity is expected to play out in 2023, and why. Read