The New Zealand economy is on track for the much sought-after “soft landing”, according to Infometrics’ latest forecasts. Although economic activity is set to remain patchy in coming quarters, year-end growth is predicted to bottom out at 0.9% during 2024, which is an upward revision of more than a percentage point from the trough that had been expected earlier this year. Read

For almost forty years, Infometrics has provided predictions across a range of building indicators to both government and private business clients. With activity across the broader economy under pressure, and the construction industry at a turning point, the need for reliable estimates of both the duration and magnitude of the emerging downturn is especially critical. Read

The full fuel excise duty returned on 1 July 2023, which provisionally added 28.5c/L to the domestic price of regular petrol. However, the price of regular petrol was still 53c/L lower than this time last year, as the substantial decline in fuel prices since July 2022 means prices are sharply down even though the fuel tax is no longer discounted. Read

Inflationary pressures are finally moderating throughout the New Zealand economy, according to Infometrics’ latest economic forecasts, after two years of costs and prices running out of control. Recent data has shown demand across the economy moderating as higher interest rates and cost-of-living pressures have squeezed household spending. With international inflation also abating, the Reserve Bank is now on track to get inflation back to the top of its 1-3%pa target bank by the end of 2024. Read

Economists are divided on whether GDP data for the March quarter, to be published this week, will show New Zealand in a recession or not. After a 0.6% contraction in the December 2022 quarter, another negative result would meet the technical definition of a recession, being two consecutive quarters of negative growth. But it makes little difference whether the March result is +0.1% or -0.1%: New Zealand is in a phase of much tougher economic conditions after the stimulus-fuelled boom during the COVID-19 pandemic. Read

There is very little evidence that inflationary pressures have started to moderate yet, despite New Zealand’s economy probably being in a recession that started in the final quarter of 2022. Infometrics’ latest economic forecasts predict that annual inflation will still be 6.6% at the end of 2023 an... Read

Global economic trends have been in sharp focus recently, with attention shifting away from interest rate hikes and onto the global financial system temporarily. But the international economic picture will become increasingly important, as the globe faces some of the weakest economic conditions since the onset of COVID-19 – with a more prolonged hit possible. In this article, we briefly profile how global economic activity is expected to play out in 2023, and why. Read

Sabrina Swerdloff has joined the Infometrics Team as one of our economists. Sabrina is a recent graduate from the University of Otago and has jumped feet first into her work at Infometrics, having already authored several Infometrics releases and reports, and co-hosted this month’s webinar for Infometrics clients, discussing the global financial outlook. Read

The New Zealand economy is heading for a well-signalled recession this year, as higher interest rates and a weaker labour market hit household spending, according to Infometrics’ latest forecasts published today. The Reserve Bank’s tightening in monetary policy is set to take full effect over the next 18 months, reducing excess demand in the economy and bringing inflation back within the Bank’s 1-3%pa target band by the end of 2024. Read

We’ve been pondering the economy’s prospects for 2023 – and those prospects are increasingly dark. It seems that a likely recession has rarely been as widely agreed on by forecasters or as well-signalled by policymakers and partial economic indicators. Read