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Forecasting

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Although filling up the car has been increasingly painful throughout this year, petrol prices would be even higher without the government’s reduction to excise duty that is currently in place until January next year. But as household budgets are squeezed, is the policy really providing assistance to... Read


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New Zealand’s economy might just be able to avoid a recession this year, according to the latest forecasts published by Infometrics, but the bulk of the economy will feel like it is going through a contraction anyway. Economic growth will only remain in positive territory thanks to the impending revival of the tourism sector, and profitability for domestically focused businesses will be heavily eroded by continued cost pressures and a drop-off in revenue as consumers go into their shells. Read


Joel Glynn interview

Joel Glynn has recently joined the Infometrics Team. In a few short months Joel has written a number of news releases and co-hosted our popular monthly webinars, so this month we sit down to chat with Joel and find out more about him and what he’s working on at Infometrics. Don’t miss Joel’s article on the boom in solar farms in this month’s Infometrics newsletter. Read


Media release - April 2022 Forecasts

The latest forecasts published by Infometrics show that the New Zealand economy has become stretched to breaking point, with demand pumped to unsustainable levels by monetary and fiscal stimulus over the last two years. This support for the economy was implemented in the expectation of a major recession caused by COVID-19. But with supply constraints and disruptions a more persistent outcome from the pandemic, the consequences of excess demand are now becoming all too evident. Read


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The emergence of Omicron promises that 2022 will be another year of disruption for the New Zealand economy. The latest forecasts published by Infometrics show the Red “traffic light” setting knocking 1-2 percentage points off GDP during the first half of this year. Alongside government restrictions on the hospitality and events sector, spiking case numbers are likely to increase households’ Hesitancy Of Going Out (HOGO) and result in softer economic outcomes, as suggested by recent falls in consumer confidence. Read


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Omicron has broken out into the community, and New Zealand finds itself at red in the COVID-19 Protection Framework, with concerns of up to 25,000 cases a day. The Omicron outbreak continues the incredible levels of uncertainty that have been a hallmark of life over the last two years. Our latest set of forecasts for the economy will be published on 4 February, and they are set to reflect both this uncertainty but also the stronger position the New Zealand economy has worked hard to achieve. From the Beach provides an overview of some of the key factors (apart from COVID-19 itself) that we think will define economic outcomes during 2022. Read


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Confidence remains that the New Zealand economy can weather the Delta outbreak and bounce back strongly again from lockdown, according to Infometrics’ latest economic forecasts. Infometrics predicts that household spending will once again be in “catch up” mode when alert level restrictions are eventually eased. Business confidence also shows that, overall, firms remain optimistic about a return to normal. Read


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In the past 12 months clients have increasingly been asking us for real time data. This is understandable. Rob Heyes looks at the ways that real time data is used in economic analysis and the trade-offs that need to be considered when using real time data. Read


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The Reserve Bank’s August 2021 Monetary Policy Statement made it clear that interest rates will continue to be pushed higher. Demand conditions across the New Zealand economy are strong, but supply issues are creating heightened labour market and inflationary pressures. Read


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Inflation has picked up rapidly and is set to spike higher in coming months, and the Reserve Bank has confirmed a strong tightening bias in its monetary policy settings. As a result, we have changed our outlook for monetary policy. We are now picking an increase in the official cash rate (OCR) next month, and we see potential for a rise of 50 basis points. Read