The emerging international trade war has created uncertainty about global growth prospects and US trade and foreign policy, which could knock as much as 1.4 percentage points off New Zealand’s GDP growth during 2026, according to Infometrics’ latest economic forecasts. The company has revised its pr... Read

There’s reason for optimism about the New Zealand economy and business conditions over the next 24 months, according to Infometrics’ latest forecasts, as the post-inflation recession gets put behind us and interest rates return to more normal levels. Although economic growth is not forecast to get above 2.5%pa during 2025 and 2026, the recovery will be underpinned by increased household spending, a more stable housing market, and strength in export commodity prices. Read

“Survive until 2025” was the oft-repeated mantra throughout last year as households grappled with high mortgage rates, businesses saw demand fall away, and spending across the economy was down. But for a while in mid-2024, even hopes of a brighter 2025 seemed like they might be too optimistic, until... Read

The New Zealand economy’s recovery from the stagnation of the last two years will remain patchy until mid-2025, according to Infometrics’ latest forecasts. Although the Reserve Bank’s interest rate cuts since August have finally provided some light at the end of the tunnel for Kiwis, continued increases in the unemployment rate will mean households remain cautious in their spending decisions over the next nine months. The high proportion of mortgage lending on fixed rates also means that the easing in monetary conditions will not have an immediate effect on household budgets. Read

Infometrics welcomes Matthew Allman into our economist team. Matthew joined us in April this year and is already an integral part of the forecasting team. This month we chat with Matthew about what he’s been involved with since he joined Infometrics. Read

The New Zealand economy faces continued difficult conditions throughout the next 12 months according to Infometrics’ latest forecasts, with increased caution from businesses around investment and hiring in response to weakening demand. Reduced job and income security is becoming a major drag on cons... Read

Economic pressures are getting real for people this year, as higher mortgage rates continue to suck more money out of household budgets, and a swathe of recent job losses undermine income security. Infometrics’ latest economic forecasts show annual GDP and private consumption spending growth briefly... Read

There are currently a lot of moving parts to New Zealand’s economic outlook, as we consider prospects throughout 2024 and into 2025. The challenges to forecasting are nowhere near as pronounced as they were during the Covid-19 pandemic, when the expectations and outcomes were, literally, off the charts. Instead, there are conflicting pressures and signals making it difficult to know which influence will ultimately prevail – conditions that are typical when the economy is at a turning point. Read

New Zealand’s economic prospects are brightening, according to Infometrics’ latest forecasts. GDP growth is predicted to average 2.0%pa during 2024 and 2025, which represents a substantial upward revision from the 1.2%pa growth that was being forecast by Infometrics in October last year. This more positive outlook is underpinned by continued high net migration that is set to take longer to retreat from its current record level. Improving business confidence will also lead to more positive outcomes for business investment spending. Read

The New Zealand economy is on track for the much sought-after “soft landing”, according to Infometrics’ latest forecasts. Although economic activity is set to remain patchy in coming quarters, year-end growth is predicted to bottom out at 0.9% during 2024, which is an upward revision of more than a percentage point from the trough that had been expected earlier this year. Read