Economic pressures are getting real for people this year, as higher mortgage rates continue to suck more money out of household budgets, and a swathe of recent job losses undermine income security. Infometrics’ latest economic forecasts show annual GDP and private consumption spending growth briefly... Read

Renters across New Zealand are feeling the squeeze as annual new rentals inflation reaches 5.1%pa. Excluding the mid-2022 peak, annual average rental inflation over the year to February 2024 is at its fastest rate since this series began in 2008. Read

For almost forty years, Infometrics has provided predictions across a range of building indicators to both government and private business clients. With activity across the broader economy under pressure, and the construction industry at a turning point, the need for reliable estimates of both the duration and magnitude of the emerging downturn is especially critical. Read

New Zealand entered its first non-lockdown recession since 2010 in the March 2023 quarter, with GDP shrinking 0.1%, following a 0.7% contraction the previous quarter. Although this slight decline in GDP confirms that the Reserve Bank’s interest rate rises are having their desired effect, the range of results across different industries shows that some parts of the economy are hurting more than others. Read

Townhouse consents in the last 12 months have reached a record 42% of all new dwelling consents, up from less than 6% of all new consents in late 2012. This phenomenal growth over the last decade has been underpinned by a combination of deteriorating housing affordability and more relaxed planning a... Read

Net migration continues to confound, with a rapid series of twists and turns in trend. The latest official data shows that at the end of January 2023, annual net migration had surged back to over +33,100, compared with a net outflow that got as big as -19,700 in the year to February 2022. Read

The battle to get inflation back under control, both globally and in New Zealand, is set to stunt economic growth throughout the next two years. The latest forecasts published by Infometrics see New Zealand’s official cash rate being increased to 4.5% in early 2023, a full percentage point more than was expected just three months ago. Higher mortgage rates will drag household spending growth down to an average of just 1.1%pa during 2023 and 2024 and flow through into weaker outcomes throughout the domestic economy. Read

Construction costs increased substantially in the June 2022 quarter. Non-residential construction costs grew 3.6%, residential construction costs grew 4.4%, and civil construction costs increased 5.4% from the previous quarter. Though our forecasts predicted strong quarterly growth for construction ... Read

Record low interest rates fueled house prices to record highs during 2020 and 2021. However, as low mortgage rates come to an end, pricing momentum has turned, shifting the housing market back in favour of buyers, albeit with prices and income multiples still at historically elevated levels. Read

January/February is always a busy time for Infometrics. This is the time we update our Regional Economic Profiles and Sector Profiles, we also release the first forecasts for the year. Read