At its most basic, our modelling and forecasting of residential consent numbers has two key influences: interest rates and population growth. Within the components of population growth, net migration is the biggest swing variable, while births and deaths tend to change much more slowly. However, ove... Read

Our latest forecasts predict an 8.0% decline in construction investment activity over the year to September 2024. Falls in activity are forecast to be broad-based, with a 14% decline in non-residential investment, a 7.7% drop in residential work, and a 2.6% dip in infrastructure activity. The declin... Read

Annual net migration reached a new record high of almost 129,000 people in the year to October, despite net departures of NZ citizens surpassing the previous biggest outflow that occurred in the wake of the 2011 Christchurch earthquake. The influx of migrants is creating renewed demand pressures in ... Read

Almost everyone we talk to in the construction industry at the moment wants to know how the residential build rate, or the number of completions, compares to new dwelling consent numbers. The heightened interest is understandable: no one believes that we’ve been building new homes at the same rate as we’ve been consenting them. Although the consent total peaked at 51,015pa in May last year, most industry players believe the build rate will only have got up to somewhere between 35,000 and 42,000pa, because the industry doesn’t have the capacity to deliver a greater volume of new homes. Read

We occasionally get requests for pieces of data that we don’t routinely forecast. This article looks at some work we’ve been doing around non-residential consents to provide a greater level of detail for subscribers to our forecasts, looking at the split of consents into new buildings and alterations and additions, as well as the number of non-residential consents being issued. Read

Recent data has been showing a downshift in residential building activity and less retail purchasing of hardware and DIY items. Although stock levels have also been falling, retail building supply stocks remain considerably higher than pre-pandemic. Higher stock levels but still-falling sales activi... Read

A high and more persistent inflationary environment continues to cause challenges across the economy, although a moderation in the pace of cost increases has thankfully begun. It’s still challenging to celebrate current pricing trends – they’re not as frantic as previously, but equally they’re not back to normal either. Read

Weather has significantly affected New Zealand throughout the first half of 2023. The effects of the extreme weather events on Auckland, Gisborne and Hawke’s Bay, and other parts of the upper North Island have been well documented. Aside from these events, the persistent wet weather has also made conditions difficult for the construction industry. Building work put in place data for the March quarter was surprisingly strong, but we have some concerns about the accuracy of this data. This article looks at whether ready-mixed concrete data provides any different information on construction activity. Read

In recent months, one of the common questions when talking to firms involved in residential construction is about the timing and steepness of the looming downturn in activity for the industry. Data released earlier this week showed that total consent numbers in the three months to May were down 23% from a year ago. The annual consent total has now retreated to 45,159, down from 51,015 at its peak in May last year. Read

One of the most consistent themes in data for the March quarter has been the moderation in pricing pressures. The most high-profile example was the easing in consumers price inflation from 7.2% to 6.7%pa, with the index’s rise of 1.2% from December being the smallest quarterly increase in two years. Although inflation remains elevated, the fact that it has started to head in the right direction has given the Reserve Bank the confidence to declare the official cash rate is on hold for now. Read