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Housing

The stock of homes available for purchase on realestate.co.nz increased in February to its highest level since 2015, as more people listed their properties for sale. In the last five years, monthly new listing numbers onto the market have only been higher than February’s total... Read


There’s little doubt the housing market has started to come back to life over the last few months. In this article, we examine the indicators showing the market’s pick-up and what’s been driving that recovery. We also look at how pronounced and persistent the pick-up might be, and we explore the implications for future monetary policy settings and residential construction activity. Read


House prices rose 0.6% in June according to the REINZ’s index, which was the first monthly increase since November 2021 after accounting for the usual seasonal pattern in prices. This result comes after nine months of significant migration inflows, which have led to increased speculation that the housing market could bottom out sooner than previously expected. Read


Houses on coins

The Reserve Bank’s loan-to-value ratio restrictions on mortgage lending are set to be relaxed on Thursday, raising expectations of a little more activity in the housing market. But because house prices have risen so much further than incomes since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, limitations to debt-servicing ability mean that getting a mortgage will not become more achievable for most prospective borrowers. Read


Movements in mortgage rates have been peculiar since the start of 2023. Despite the 50-basis point increase in the official cash rate in February, pressure on retail mortgage rates has generally been in the other direction – downwards. So, what’s going on, and what do current events mean for the future pathway for mortgage rates? And with low sales volumes, more distressed owners, and stubborn seller expectations, how will housing market outcomes evolve throughout the coming year and beyond? Read


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Chief Forecaster Gareth Kiernan has penned Infometrics’ traditional Christmas Carol. Sung to the tune of Brenda Lee’s Christmas song “Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree”. Read


Social housing crisis

Firstly, the good news: data from the Ministry of Housing and Urban Development shows that the number of applicants on the government’s Housing Register, waiting for a suitable social house to become available has declined by 3,583 people, or 13%, since the peak in April this year. The figure has now recorded its first annual decline since early 2016. Read


housing-bubble

Nationwide house prices have now fallen for 10 consecutive months as the effects of rising interest rates and weaker population growth slash both the number of buyers and their ability to pay high prices for property. The 10 consecutive monthly falls in the Real Estate Institute’s index (seasonally adjusted) is just short of the record 11 declines that occurred in 2008. However, the 11.8% drop in this index from the market’s peak has now surpassed the total fall of 11.3% that was recorded between June 2007 and December 2008. But that nationwide fall masks considerable regional differences, which we analyse in this article. Read


Housing development at Flat Bush, Auckland

We examine projected household growth around the regions, and ask whether we are currently building enough in the right places. Read


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Record low interest rates fueled house prices to record highs during 2020 and 2021. However, as low mortgage rates come to an end, pricing momentum has turned, shifting the housing market back in favour of buyers, albeit with prices and income multiples still at historically elevated levels. Read