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Weekly commentary

Sheep in Auckland 2022

New Zealand’s economy looks to have expanded further in the September 2023 quarter, although momentum has slowed as various economic pressures hit. Continued jobs and population growth have supported growth, but high inflation and higher interest rates have moderated the strength seen in the economy. Rising pressures on the primary sector are also beginning to hit provincial economies. Read


Infometrics has recently added a new section to our Regional Economic Profile which explores the Pacific Peoples population and their role in regional labour markets. This article outlines the growing significance of New Zealand’s Pacific Peoples population in the context of broader demographic shifts. Read

Looking Up In Auckland Jul-2023 Brad Olsen

Economic momentum continues to hold up better than expected across New Zealand, with rapid jobs growth and population growth counterbalancing inflation and interest rate challenges faced by households. Some parts of the country continue to experience solid growth, but others remain hampered by the ongoing effects of wild weather over the first half of 2023. Read

One of the most consistent themes in data for the March quarter has been the moderation in pricing pressures. The most high-profile example was the easing in consumers price inflation from 7.2% to 6.7%pa, with the index’s rise of 1.2% from December being the smallest quarterly increase in two years. Although inflation remains elevated, the fact that it has started to head in the right direction has given the Reserve Bank the confidence to declare the official cash rate is on hold for now. Read

Budget 2023 Books

Recent forecasts from The Treasury point towards New Zealand avoiding a technical recession and getting on top of inflation before the end of 2024. The Reserve Bank’s forecasts still see a recession, but a relatively mild one, with inflation also getting back within the 1-3%pa target band by the end... Read

Handing over car keys

Demand for rental cars dried up over the COVID-19 pandemic, as tourist arrivals plummeted. With reduced demand, there was a swift decline in the size of the rental car fleet. Registrations of new rental cars have generally been trending upwards since 2021, but they still remain below pre-pandemic le... Read

Wellington Townhouses

Townhouse consents in the last 12 months have reached a record 42% of all new dwelling consents, up from less than 6% of all new consents in late 2012. This phenomenal growth over the last decade has been underpinned by a combination of deteriorating housing affordability and more relaxed planning a... Read

The highest inflation in a generation over the past year has caused great pain for households and policymakers alike. The recent release of the March 2023 quarter Consumers Price Index (CPI) showed a moderation in the headline inflation rate to 6.7%pa, the slowest increase in over a year. However, a... Read

EV charging station sign

Between April and December last year, Clean Car Discount fees totalled $105m and rebates totalled $203m, which means the scheme distributed nearly double the revenue it brought in. The Discount scheme was designed to be self-funding, so the gap between fees and rebates needs to be addressed. To close the funding gap, the most straightforward approach would be to either lower the level of rebates, increase the level of fees, or a combination of the two. Read

Movements in mortgage rates have been peculiar since the start of 2023. Despite the 50-basis point increase in the official cash rate in February, pressure on retail mortgage rates has generally been in the other direction – downwards. So, what’s going on, and what do current events mean for the future pathway for mortgage rates? And with low sales volumes, more distressed owners, and stubborn seller expectations, how will housing market outcomes evolve throughout the coming year and beyond? Read