The labour force participation rate has been consistently rising over the past 30 years in New Zealand, providing a welcome boost to the labour supply. But can participation keep rising? Read

US President Ronald Reagan is famous for repeatedly using the phrase “trust, but verify”, underscoring the importance of testing assumptions to confirm that claims are true. It’s a phrase that economists also keep in mind when dealing with a vast array of different datasets. Read

New Zealand’s provincial economies contribute greatly to the overall economy, providing dairy, meat, and horticultural products to the nation and overseas export markets. Read

Most countries have largely reined in higher inflation, following a period of heightened price pressures stemming from stimulus during the pandemic, compounded by geopolitical events like the Russian invasion of Ukraine. But, with conflict in the Middle East and Europe, a struggling Chinese property... Read

Building costs, like prices across most of the economy, surged higher between 2021 and 2023, as a result of supply chain disruptions, capacity constraints, labour shortages, and strong demand conditions. However, with house prices falling sharply during 2022 and into 2023, as well as more recent fal... Read

To say that 2024 has been tough on both construction workers and employers is putting it mildly. In this article we use Stats NZ’s employment stocks and flows series to understand where construction workers typically come from, and where they head after construction. Read

Benefit numbers have been in the headlines again in recent times, as the economy has continued to deteriorate and businesses shed staff and limit hiring in the face of lower sales and activity amid still high input costs. Lower job ads and rising unemployment also means more households fear for thei... Read

Yesterday the Reserve Bank accelerated the monetary policy easing cycle, cutting the official cash rate (OCR) by 50 basis points to 4.75%. Markets had priced in a cut of around 50 basis points, although the consensus among analysts was more divided between 25 and 50 basis points. Most retail banks had shifted their forecasts to a 50-basis point cut following the release of NZIER’s Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion on 1 October. Read

Two surveys over the last week have shown rebounding business confidence, despite there being little evidence of an economic recovery any time soon, apart from the start of the easing cycle in interest rates. Along with the improvement in overall confidence, we delve into the figures for the buildin... Read

Wages tell us a great deal about the labour market and economy. For businesses, wages reflect the price they are willing to pay for labour, and for workers, wages reflect their willingness to supply labour rather than do other activities with their time. Wages therefore tell us the point where a fir... Read