A constrained global supply of diesel has led to a substantial increase in prices over the last few months, both for importers, and at the pump. Higher diesel costs threaten to intensify inflationary pressures, with geopolitical concerns adding further upside risk. In this article, we outline the issues facing the current diesel market, and the outlook over the remainder of 2023 and into 2024. Read

For almost forty years, Infometrics has provided predictions across a range of building indicators to both government and private business clients. With activity across the broader economy under pressure, and the construction industry at a turning point, the need for reliable estimates of both the duration and magnitude of the emerging downturn is especially critical. Read

Understanding economic diversity in an economy is about analysing the diversity of ways that an economy creates economic output. A common way to do this is to look at the relative size of the industries that make up an economy. Here, we outline a framework for doing so. Read

New Zealand’s greenhouse gas reduction targets are a critical part of moving towards a more resilient and sustainable model of production. An important, and underdiscussed part of this conversation, is the notion of Read

Annual inflation may have come down to 6.0%pa, but businesses and households alike are still facing extreme cost pressures. A massive influx of migration and a high number of people returning to work has helped to alleviate some labour market pressures, and yet some underlying wage measures are stil... Read

The recent release of December 2022 quarter GDP data means we finally have three full years of economic data on the COVID-19 pandemic. With the last two quarters of 2022 being without COVID-19 restrictions, we’re also starting to get a clearer read on how the economy is performing without pandemic restrictions. But intense and persistent inflation, and rapidly rising interest rates, have added a new complication to the mix. Read

New Zealand needs more detailed information about the skill needs of each occupation. The Australian Skills Classification (ASC) gives us this. While it has its limitations, it is a vast improvement on what we currently have and will only get better. Read

Recent Infometrics data provides the first comprehensive analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on different industries and local areas across New Zealand. Our regional and sector data, which sits behind our Regional Economic Profiles and Sector Profiles, was updated in early February 2022 with estimates for the year ending March 2021. Our analysis shows a considerable shock to parts of the New Zealand economy, and the weakest period of employment activity since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Read

With Omicron set to spread across New Zealand over the coming weeks, many businesses are faced with making tough decisions about how to best protect their workforce and ongoing operations. We estimate that absenteeism could rise to 12% of the workforce, if key government forecasts bear out, which would hamper activity. Read

The bounce back from Lockdown 2.0 has begun, but the overall recovery has been restrained by Auckland remaining at higher alert levels. Auckland’s move to Level 3 is welcome news, with a larger amount of economic activity to take place. But risks remain for the pace of New Zealand’s rebound, with supply chain issues and the need to balance health and economic priorities creating a difficult set of choices. Read