There has been endless news on the current unprecedented trade war between the US and the rest of the world. The effects on US consumers and the US economy should not be understated, and forecasts incorporating current policy paint a depressing outlook for the US. Read

We are increasingly looking to grow our international relationship with India, as demonstrated by Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s recent visit. International relations come in many different forms, so in this article we look at how New Zealand’s relationship with India has evolved in terms of mer... Read

President Trump’s “on-again, off-again” tariffs, and the uncertainty associated with them, have thrown financial markets into a tailspin over the last couple of months. Although New Zealand is not directly in the firing line from tariffs yet, it’s a possibility in coming weeks. Our Chart of the Mont... Read

Export prices are sitting in a strong position, with healthy demand for New Zealand products across the world and healthy supply here at home. Higher dairy production and a record pay-out will inject an additional $4.5b into the economy in the current season, and meat prices have strengthened over the second half of 2024 too. Horticulture exports are in a strong position too, with rising kiwifruit exports after a tough earlier season, and apple exports have recovered well too after Cyclone Gabrielle. Read

Rapidly declining export prices have ramped up the pressure on New Zealand exporters and pushed our terms of trade to a seven-year low. Export prices were down by 13%pa in the December 2023 quarter, the largest annual decline since 2009. In comparison, import prices fell a much smaller 2.2%pa. In th... Read

The New Zealand economy has entered the new year with questions about whether the worst of the post-Covid hangover is behind us, or whether there’s more of a slowdown to come in 2024. We have collected our thoughts on three issues that will play a key role in determining New Zealand’s economic performance this year. Read

This article outlines how the Israel-Gaza conflict is impacting freight prices, and the implications for New Zealand. Freight prices had been steadily declining since mid-2021 as pandemic-related supply-chain issues dissipated, but picked up sharply in January. Although prices are still around a qua... Read

Global diesel prices have surged significantly over the last few months. Driven largely by supply constraints, our Chart of the Month shows how this surge has led to a significant import cost premium over petrol. Elevated diesel prices will have ripple effects throughout both the global and local economies, and risk inflation remaining higher for longer. Read

A constrained global supply of diesel has led to a substantial increase in prices over the last few months, both for importers, and at the pump. Higher diesel costs threaten to intensify inflationary pressures, with geopolitical concerns adding further upside risk. In this article, we outline the issues facing the current diesel market, and the outlook over the remainder of 2023 and into 2024. Read

Three years after COVID-19 emerged, New Zealand is grappling with economic imbalances that have been amplified by the pandemic, our response, and its aftermath. The gap between our exports and imports has not been worse in almost 50 years, the only way to grow the economy seems to be by opening the migration tap, and housing affordability remains as critical as ever. We must strive for better, more sustainable, ways to increase productivity and grow the economy – and soon. Read