July 2016 Newsletter

  Newsletter - July 2016

The past month has seen the world rocked by Brexit, political turmoil and acts of terror that strike at the heart of our humanity.
Our lives, here in New Zealand, seem stable and gentle by comparison – which is not to say we are not facing our own challenges.
In this issue, we announce the release of our latest forecasts that will give our subscribers an opportunity to explore what New Zealand’s economic future may hold.
Shaun Twaddle examines the opportunities in the construction sector across all of New Zealand’s regions, and Benje Patterson looks at labour force demands in a report commissioned by the Upper North Island Strategic Alliance (UNISA).
We end this newsletter with an interview with our Chief Forecaster, Gareth Kiernan, where he touches on how economic forecasting can impact on business and government decision making.

                Articles

                                Construction activity boosts economic growth to 3.9%pa in March 2018

                        New Zealand’s economic outlook is changing.  Infometrics released its comprehensive July 2016 economic, building, and transport forecasts on Friday 22 July, which paints a sunny picture for the next few years, but a serious hangover thereafter.
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                                Ongoing opportunities in the construction sector

                        The construction sector experienced strong employment growth over the past five years and we expect this strong growth to continue throughout the next few years. Between March 2011 and March 2016, employment in core construction grew by 26%, compared with just 7.5% employment growth across the rest of the economy. Looking at regional data, it’s no surprise where that employment growth in the construction sector has occurred.  Auckland and Canterbury each contributed over 40% of the lift in employment, with the rest of the country responsible for just 15% of the new jobs created.
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                                UNISA case study – Understanding future labour force demands in the upper North Island

                        The upper North Island is due to dominate economic growth in New Zealand over the next five years. The relevant authorities need to ensure that there will be an adequate supply of skills to facilitate this growth. To understand these issues Infometrics was recently involved in a project that analysed the future labour force demands of key sectors in the upper North Island.
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                                A day in the life of an economist – Gareth Kiernan

                        With the recent Brexit vote creating waves around the world, it is likely that Michael Gove, one of the leaders of the Leave campaign, is rethinking his comments before the vote.  He was asked why he should be trusted over the overwhelming list of economists and international authorities who opposed Brexit, to which he retorted “People in this country have had enough of experts.”
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