Infometrics August newsletter
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August 2016

This week saw the closing ceremony of the Rio Olympics.  This has been New Zealand’s most successful Olympic games, with the highest medal tally ever. After all the excitement and Olympic drama over the last few weeks, for most of us it’s back to reality with a bump.

If you need some inspiration for a change in career path, or if you’re just starting out, then Got a Trade awareness week may help you out.  Infometrics are proud sponsors of this initiative that hopes to see more of New Zealand’s young people considering training in the trades as the demand for skilled labour grows.

Shaun Twaddle looks specifically at the manufacturing sector’s needs, and we also hear more from Shaun in our article series: ‘A day in the life of an economist’, where he expands on what the ‘Got a Trade? Got it Made’ campaign is all about and how this dovetails with his work at Infometrics.

Benje Patterson comments on the week that was and looks at the challenges facing the Reserve Bank in the upcoming months, as well as current status of the dairy industry.

Gareth Kiernan looks at the potential effects of the upcoming LVR changes in September, as well as providing our estimates of the effects of the previous two sets of LVR restrictions in 2013 and 2015.

Skills more important than ever in the manufacturing sector
The number of medium-high and high-skilled jobs in the manufacturing sector [1] has grown by an average of 1.7%pa over the last 15 years, highlighting the growing demand for skills within the industry.  The increased skills requirement is not a phenomenon that is unique to manufacturing, but is perhaps accentuated by the competitive environment that the sector faces in an ever-more globalised economy.
Is the Reserve Bank Governor impotent?
It has been a bit of an unusual time recently in the banking sector following the Reserve Bank’s cut of the official cash rate by 25 basis points to 2.0%.  Instead of playing ball and passing on this cut to mortgage holders and other borrowers, the major retail banks, with the notable exception of Kiwibank, passed on mere crumbs and, intriguingly, lifted the interest rates they offer to term depositors.
A day in the life of an economist – Shaun Twaddle
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Infometrics Senior Economist Shaun Twaddle is actively involved with Got a Trade? and the industry training organisations that manage this campaign.  Shaun has worked extensively with tertiary education providers, industry training organisations, industry associations and bodies focussing on understanding the issues around workforce development, current and future workforce demands and the supply of skilled labour. We chat with Shaun in our regular feature “A day in the life of an Economist” and ask him about his work and particular about the Got a Trade? campaign.
Third time lucky? LVRs set to slash house sales by at least 15%
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The Reserve Bank’s recent announcement of new loan-to-value restrictions that it plans to implement from the start of September caught us a little by surprise – not the idea itself, because that was pretty well telegraphed, but the magnitude of the latest changes. We’ve spent some time analysing the mortgage lending data and believe that these changes could have the biggest effect on housing market activity of any of the Bank’s moves since 2013. This article presents our analysis of the potential effects of the upcoming LVR changes in September, as well as providing our estimates of the effects of the previous two sets of LVR restrictions in 2013 and 2015.