October 2020 Newsletter

  Newsletter - October 2020

Housing continues to be a key topic of discussion across New Zealand.  In this month's newsletter Brad Olsen examines the state of our housing, arguing that there are too many New Zealand homes that are damp, mouldy, and cold. 
COVID-19 continues to create considerable uncertainty about the future, but as Infometrics Chief Forecaster Gareth Kiernan outlines in our latest media release, the October 2020 Infometrics forecasts point towards the risks of a double-dip recession as we head into 2021.
Globally, COVID-19 case numbers are rising, and the outlook for global economic activity looks fragile. Brad examines what’s happening overseas and what the implications are for New Zealand.  
Finally, Gareth takes a look at tourism spending in our regular Chart of the Month, warning that the hit to the tourism sector during summer could be three times are large as what we’ve currently experienced.

                Articles

                                Too many houses are mouldy, damp, and cold

                        Housing remains a hot issue across New Zealand. But there’s not as much focus on the quality of the housing we endlessly debate. In part, this lack of focus is because we haven’t had great insights to work with – and what gets measured gets managed. But Infometrics analysis of Census 2018 data shows some disturbing results, with a concerning number of mouldy, damp or cold houses.
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                                Global surge could wreck rebound projections

                        A second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic is sweeping the world, even as New Zealand’s containment measures remain robust. The rising tide of cases could stymie economic rebounds expected globally, with negative implications for New Zealand’s export potential heading into 2021.
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                                Chart of the Month: summer’s big hole in tourism revenue

                        Since the borders were closed in March, we have consistently argued that an increase in spending by New Zealanders on domestic holidays could never make up for the loss in revenue from foreign visitors. Data for 2019 shows that international tourism was worth $16.0b to the New Zealand economy, while Kiwis spent $6.2b on overseas holidays.
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                                Media Release: Double-dip recession next year, but housing rolls on

                        Despite rebounding well from the initial lockdown and effects of the COVID-19 pandemic so far, the New Zealand economy remains vulnerable, according to the latest projections from Infometrics. The company is forecasting a double-dip recession to hit during 2021, as delayed job losses punch a hole in consumer spending and drag economic activity lower.
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