Infometrics October newsletter
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October 2017

New Zealand has a new Prime Minister and a new government, and we wish Jacinda Ardern every success in her new role.

Topics such as housing, immigration, and regional development will be the focus of her team of policy makers. In our latest economic forecasts, released last week, we continue to analyse and comment on these issues. The first article this month is the Media Release for our latest forecasts, which touches on some of our insights, if you'd like to know more - please contact us.

Kelvin Davidson takes a look at commerical property in Wellington, and predicts that landlords in the capital are likely to enjoy tidy returns over the next few years.

David Kennedy, our Associate Economist based in South America, takes a look at how strong leadership played a role in the building of the Panama Canal.

And lastly, Shaun Twaddle sits down with Claire Byrne, ServiceIQ's Senior Workforce Development Advisor, to discuss the launch of the first in a series of Service Sector Regional Roadmaps and how Infometrics' Sector Profiles have been used by ServiceIQ.

Better growth in 2018 to prelude a more challenging next decade
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Infometrics’ latest forecasts show the New Zealand economy still has more gas in the tank for 2018, despite the slowdown of the last 12 months and suggestions from some analysts that all the economy’s key drivers have already peaked. Infometrics’ Chief Forecaster Gareth Kiernan points to a buoyant export sector, increased government spending, and the perennial need to build more houses in Auckland as the key components of GDP growth averaging 3.4%pa during 2018 and 2019.
Wellington commercial property could be a nice little income earner
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Commercial property is often thought of as a hybrid asset, with total returns generated from its bond-like income earning ability combined with the scope for equity-like capital gains. In Wellington’s case, the earthquake-driven shortage of buildings (particularly offices) is likely to be good for both parts of the returns equation. Income, however, could be the real star.
The Panama Canal: mosquitoes, a soft voice and a big stick
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A sense of intrigue prompted David Kennedy to visit Panama City – an oasis of wealth and success in Central America.  He was vaguely aware of its economic and historic importance: it is a metropolis of futuristic skyscrapers, an airline hub, a tax haven, a financial hub, a nexus of global trade, and a United States outpost of sorts.  He knew that all these attributes related, in one way or another, to the Panama Canal.
Service IQ Regional Roadmaps
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In August this year ServiceIQ, the Industry Training Organisation (ITO), for the aviation, hospitality, retail, travel, tourism and museums sectors, launched the first 10 in a series of 15 Service Sector Regional Roadmaps in the Grand Hall at Parliament. The roadmaps were launched by Associate Minister for Tertiary Education, Skills and Employment Hon. Louise Upston.