Infometrics October newsletter
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October 2019

This month, Chief Forecaster Gareth Kiernan adds his view to just how large New Zealand’s housing shortage is, and where it’s located.

Housing, and who’s missing out, is an area of constant interest in New Zealand. Nick Brunsdon’s article looks at public housing and where demand is most outstripping supply.

In our latest forecasts, released last week, we’ve highlighted the potent cocktail of economic factors that are dragging New Zealand’s economic growth lower.

With economic growth expected to soften, Brad Olsen offers some advice when it comes to planning for an economic downturn, and what Infometrics can offer through our presentations to inform businesses and boards.

Finally, Gareth uses our October Chart of the Month, and the Rugby World Cup fever, to examine New Zealand’s similarities with Japan’s housing experience.

NZ short by nearly 40,000 houses
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New Zealand’s housing market isn’t functioning as well as it should be, with higher house prices, rising rents, falling home ownership, and a lack of housing options. But just how large is the housing shortage that we continually hear about?
Growing demand for public housing
Escalating housing costs across the country have put the squeeze on households, particularly renters on low incomes. This article looks at the demand for public (or social) housing, what’s being done about supply, and highlights emerging public housing hotspots across New Zealand.
Media Release: Potent cocktail giving NZ a growth hangover
The global economic slowdown will continue to be a drag on New Zealand’s economy over the next year, according to Infometrics’ latest forecasts. Escalating tariffs as a result of the trade war between the US and China have seen global growth expectations steadily downgraded. China, New Zealand’s largest export market and the major engine of the global economy over the last decade, is growing at its slowest rate in 30 years. All these factors mean that next year the world economy could record its slowest growth since 2012.
What to watch when planning for the economic downturn
The latest Infometrics forecasts reinforce that New Zealand is expected to experience a period of softer growth over the next few years. With many businesses and boards currently reviewing their strategic plans and priorities for the coming years we thought it useful to briefly highlight some of the key current economic insights that decision makers need to be aware of.
Chart of the month: Will NZ housing follow in Japan’s footsteps?
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Between September 1977 and March 1991, Japanese house prices rose 83% in real terms, or at an average real rate of 4.6%pa. Then things got ugly…