April 2019 Newsletter

  Newsletter - April 2019

In this month’s newsletter, Brad Olsen sets out his reasons for being firmly against a cut to the official cash rate (OCR).
Chief Forecaster Gareth Kiernan looks at some of the key trends from the Infometrics forecasts released last week. While storm clouds are brewing, strong construction activity will keep economic growth stronger than previously expected over the next year.
We continue our ‘a day in the life of an economist’ series by interviewing Paul Barkle.
Finally, David Friggens looks at migration data in our 'Chart of the Month' to show Muslim migration to New Zealand is relatively low.

                Articles

                                Sounding the alarm!

                        Since the Reserve Bank surprised markets with its shift towards an easing bias, the outlook for interest rates has been a constant source of speculation. But the timing of the shift in stance was curious – in our view, nothing fundamental had changed, and the Reserve Bank is sending out the entire fire brigade to rescue a kitten from a tree.
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                                Forecast Media Release: April 2019

                        Despite increasing storm clouds and general concern about the New Zealand economy’s prospects, Infometrics’ latest economic forecasts show GDP growth holding up well throughout the next year. The economic consultancy predicts 3.1% growth in the year to June 2020. A recent resurgence in residential building consents, particularly in Auckland, is pivotal to that outcome.
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                                A day in the life of an Economist – Paul Barkle

                        Paul Barkle has been at Infometrics since 2017, juggling both work as an economist and study. Paul works across a wide range of areas at Infometrics and was involved with updating models in our forecasts that were released last week. This month we chat to Paul about a day in the life of an economist: how he came to be an economist and what he sees in the future.
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                                Chart of the Month: Muslim migration is relatively small

                        Immigration is a tricky topic when we can’t agree on the numbers, and aside from that is an evergreen political hot potato. Among many legitimate concerns and disagreements, New Zealand has to contend with Islamophobic arguments despite levels of migration being relatively low.
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