November 2019 Newsletter

  Newsletter - November 2019

This month, Rob Heyes takes a look at African Swine Fever (ASF) and what it means for New Zealand’s meat sector.
With new population figures now available, Andrew   Whiteford and Brad Olsen investigate the massive downwards revision for Auckland’s population, and the uptick in most other areas across the country.  
We’ve refreshed our Infometrics Infrastructure Pipeline Profile, and this month Paul Barkle outlines the revised $138b infrastructure spending anticipated over the next decade.
Finally, David Friggens rounds out the newsletter with a Chart of the Month focusing on changes to local election turnout, finding a fall in metro turnout and a rise elsewhere in New Zealand.

                Articles

                                African Swine Fever: New Zealand’s winners and losers

                        African Swine Fever (ASF) is now firmly entrenched in every province of China and has recently been reported in several other South East Asian countries, causing an upheaval in the world’s meat market. The Fever, a highly contagious, incurable virus that is fatal to pigs but harmless to humans, has also been detected in parts of Eastern Europe since 2014.
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                                Is Auckland CBD the new zombie town?

                        The latest estimated resident population data for regions and districts published by Statistics New Zealand (Stats NZ) in late October threw up a few surprises, not least that Auckland’s population is a lot lower than previously estimated. Indeed, we have been overestimating population in many of our larger urban centres and underestimating it in the smaller provincial districts.
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                                All aboard the $138b train!

                        A whopping $138 billion of infrastructure spending is planned across New Zealand over the next 10 years, according to the latest Infometrics Infrastructure Pipeline Profile . Updated in early November, the Profile shows planned infrastructure spending is expected to be roughly $9b higher than our previous estimate from September 2018.
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                                Chart of the Month: Local election turnout zigs and zags

                        Every time we have local elections there is lots of talk about the low levels of turnout, and rightly so. In 2016, turnout was up nationally to an unimpressive 42%. The 2019 preliminary results from Local Government NZ show a drop in national turnout to 41.4%. At a slightly more detailed level, “metro” council areas followed a similar zigzag of up in 2016 and down in 2019. Interestingly “provincial” and “rural” council areas showed an inverse zigzag, with decreased turnout in 2016 and increased turnout in 2019.
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