Infometrics June newsletter
June 2021
NEWSLETTER
There’s never a dull moment in the economy. June 2021 reinforces that view with a range of announcements and topics front of mind, and we’ve tried to keep across them in our newsletter.
Senior Economist Rob Heyes has had a look over the Climate Change Commission’s final report and where to next for the energy sector. Chief Economist Dr Adolf Stroombergen has also had a look, with a recommendation for a carbon dividend to address distributional issues of New Zealand’s transition.
Senior Economist Brad Olsen examines the Q1 GDP result, and asks if the justification for keeping interest rates low has now passed. And to round out the month, Chief Forecaster has analysed what sort of money might be available in this season of The Block NZ.
A national energy strategy is just the beginning
In its advice to the government, the Climate Change Commission (CCC) recommends the urgent development of a long-term national energy strategy to decarbonise the energy system and ensure the electricity sector is ready to meet future needs.
Better understanding the details of climate change policy
The New Zealand Climate Change Commission has released its final report; Ināia tonu nei: a low emissions future. The report is over 400 pages, with about the same amount again in the form of supporting material. Overall the results from the analysis are very similar to those in the draft report, albeit with some significant changes regarding the rate of uptake of electric vehicles, the output of emission-intensive industries and emissions reduction options in pastoral farming.
Justification for keeping interest rates low becoming harder to swallow
A surge in March quarter GDP is further evidence of a resilient New Zealand economy. But with economic activity comfortably above pre-COVID levels, employment rising, and inflation also set to pop higher, it’s becoming harder to justify keeping interest rates at record lows.
Chart of the month: Big bucks likely on The Block NZ
The Block NZ is back, and there couldn’t be a better time for people to give up three months of their lives in the hope of making some money. Our Chart of the Month shows there is a strong correlation between house price growth in Auckland and the average profits made on the show.