Infometrics February newsletter
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February 2021

In our February newsletter we had planned to explore Valentine’s Day spending, but like everyone else our focus quickly shifted once the change in Alert Levels occurred.  Senior Economist Brad Olsen takes a look at the likely economic effects of Alert Level 3 in Auckland and Level 2 elsewhere in New Zealand, concluding that although the economic hit will be swift, businesses are better positioned to adapt, and the bounce back is expected to be just as quick.

Two weeks ago we updated our Regional Economic Profiles, and given the changes in the dairy sector and its importance to many regional economies, Senior Economist Nick Brunsdon has taken a look at the key trends and how they’re moo-ving. 

It’s been a busy time for Infometrics, with our latest forecasts also being released earlier this month. The economic outlook is now much more optimistic, and as Infometrics Chief Forecaster Gareth Kiernan details in our media release, we’ve dodged a missile so far!

Finally, Brad rounds out the newsletter with some analysis of the public sector workforce, how it’s changed over time and become a more important part of the economy, and how regional hubs for public agencies might provide both opportunities and challenges.

Auckland catches a cold, and New Zealand sneezes
This Economic Note provides high-level summary insights on the likely economic trends surrounding the change in Alert Levels for Auckland and New Zealand in February 2021.
Dairy sector growth flat lines as we pass peak dairy
The loss of international tourism has seen dairy regain its position as New Zealand’s largest export. Among the upheaval of COVID-19 in 2020, New Zealand’s primary sector has held up well, providing high-quality food and beverage products to both the local and overseas markets.
Media Release: NZ’s economic outlook astounding and enviable
wp-media release green with envy
The New Zealand economy has entered 2021 on a strong footing, having dodged a missile last year from COVID-19, according to Infometrics’ latest forecasts. The massive fiscal and monetary stimulus put in place last year, combined with our good public health outcomes, has limited the number of job losses, boosted the housing market and construction activity, and underpinned a strong rebound in economic activity after lockdown.
The rising importance of public sector jobs
In recent years growth in public sector jobs has far outpaced overall employment growth, with the change in government in 2017 seeing a new direction set for agencies serving New Zealand.