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Infometrics October newsletter
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October 2021
NEWSLETTER

New Zealand’s population continues to change, with the latest local population estimates showing further rises and falls across New Zealand. Principal Economist Brad Olsen takes a look at these population trends, as the collapse in international migration and sustained regional migration to the provinces reshape New Zealand.

Economist Andrew Beattie explores some of the emerging export opportunities with the UK on the back of the recent Free Trade Agreement, using Infometrics' Export Market Finder to detail some unusual new options for trade.

Chief Forecaster Gareth Kiernan sets out what the latest Infometrics forecasts show for the New Zealand economy, with a still optimistic view for the economy even as uncertainty rises again.

We introduce Lily Stelling, a new addition to the Infometrics Team, in our Day in the Life of an Economist segment.

And finally, Brad rounds out the October newsletter with our Chart of the Month, showing that inflation is highest in the North Island as provincial areas start hitting capacity constraints.

Population shift: provinces rise, urbans fall
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New Zealand’s population continues to evolve as changing working trends, affordability considerations, and people movements help shape local communities. Fewer births and deaths, a huge reversal in net international migration, and sustained net internal migration trends all contributed to the changing population around New Zealand. As our analysis shows, these trends are driving stronger population growth in provincial centres around New Zealand, as urban centres feel the loss of overseas migration.
Expanding export opportunities in the UK
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The free trade agreement signed earlier this month between New Zealand and the United Kingdom will open up huge opportunities for local exporters. The Free Trade Agreement (FTA) will eliminate all tariffs on New Zealand exports, with 97% of them being removed the day the FTA comes into force. Although, the government estimates the FTA will boost GDP by $1b we have used our Export Market Finder tool to identify some of the top opportunities for New Zealand exporters.
Media Release: Economy to bounce back as we learn to live with Delta
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Confidence remains that the New Zealand economy can weather the Delta outbreak and bounce back strongly again from lockdown, according to Infometrics’ latest economic forecasts. Infometrics predicts that household spending will once again be in “catch up” mode when alert level restrictions are eventually eased. Business confidence also shows that, overall, firms remain optimistic about a return to normal.
A day in the life of an Economist – Lily Stelling
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Lily Stelling has recently joined the Infometrics Team as an Economic Assistant.  This month we sit down to chat with Lily about what she’s working on at Infometrics.
Chart of the Month: Inflation highest in the North Island
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Cost pressures are building across the economy, as strong demand encounters severely stretched supply chains. Businesses are being forced to raise prices to consumers as their own suppliers hike input costs. Inflation in September 2021 was 4.9% in New Zealand – the fastest in decades if you ignore the GST rise in 2011. Provincial areas of the North Island are seeing the highest price rises, as strong economic intentions hit capacity constraints.