Articles
We economists can be a tactless bunch. Last week’s announcement that the economy had contracted for the fourth time in five quarters was greeted with comments about how the recession was necessary, and that the extent of the contraction only highlighted to serve how overheated... Read
All eyes are on the Reserve Bank this week, with a few different guesses over what they’ll say and do. The variety of opinions reflects a lot of twists and turns in the last couple of months. Financial markets got excited about the possibility of... Read
There are currently a lot of moving parts to New Zealand’s economic outlook, as we consider prospects throughout 2024 and into 2025. The challenges to forecasting are nowhere near as pronounced as they were during the Covid-19 pandemic, when the expectations and outcomes were, literally, off the charts. Instead, there are conflicting pressures and signals making it difficult to know which influence will ultimately prevail – conditions that are typical when the economy is at a turning point. Read
In New Zealand’s laissez-faire economy, there are two main institutions with the ability to have a significant effect on economic outcomes. One of those institutions, the Reserve Bank, attracts plenty of attention and generates its fair share of column-inches with its monetary policy decisions. But it’s debatable ... Read
New Zealand’s economic prospects are brightening, according to Infometrics’ latest forecasts. GDP growth is predicted to average 2.0%pa during 2024 and 2025, which represents a substantial upward revision from the 1.2%pa growth that was being forecast by Infometrics in October last year. This more positive outlook is underpinned by continued high net migration that is set to take longer to retreat from its current record level. Improving business confidence will also lead to more positive outcomes for business investment spending. Read
On Tuesday, Reserve Bank Chief Economist Paul Conway will deliver a speech on how the global economy has changed since the Covid pandemic, and the role of more frequent and accurate data to inform monetary policy decisions. Unusually, though, the speech will include “brief comments on domestic data developments” since the Bank’s last Monetary Policy Statement in November. Read
The New Zealand economy has entered the new year with questions about whether the worst of the post-Covid hangover is behind us, or whether there’s more of a slowdown to come in 2024. We have collected our thoughts on three issues that will play a key role in determining New Zealand’s economic performance this year. Read
Recent headlines about the state of New Zealand’s infrastructure have mostly been disillusioning. Whether it’s our inability to afford new interisland ferries, the apparent poor condition of our state highways, or calls for Lower Hutt residents to “stop pooing” ahead of the Jucy Fest music festival, it’s difficult to escape the impression that New Zealand is struggling to maintain its infrastructure somewhere even close to first-world standards. Read
Chief Forecaster Gareth Kiernan has penned Infometrics’ traditional Christmas Carol. Sung to the tune of Tommie Connor's Christmas song “I Saw Mommy Kissing Santa Claus”. Read