Infometrics
Infometrics
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Tourism

Masked-World

The global economic outlook soured in early 2022, with the recovery being stifled by high inflation, continued supply chain disruptions, and rising geopolitical clashes. There’s a lot happening, and although this article doesn’t capture every piece of global economic news, it does set out some of the key global hurdles, and what they mean for the economic outlook. Read


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Last month we looked at how quickly international travel will return as New Zealand’s borders reopen. Evidence from people movements between other countries suggests an eagerness to travel again, especially if there are no restrictions. For example, flight numbers between the US and Mexico are now sitting above pre-pandemic levels. Read


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One of the starkest contrasts of pre- and post-pandemic life is how much less connected we are with overseas countries. International travel was obliterated almost everywhere in about a month when COVID-19 began its spread across the globe. Airline companies slashed their capacity in response, sending surplus planes to the desert where they won’t depreciate as quickly. The domestic tourism boom has helped local airline traffic to recover, although our ongoing isolation continues to negatively affect the tourism sector. Overseas evidence shows that as travel restrictions have eased, people are keen to get back out and explore, but activity has not returned to pre-pandemic levels yet. Read


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It’s still early days, but it seems the Trans-Tasman bubble hasn’t been the silver bullet that many in the tourism sector had been hoping for. In the four weeks to 30 May, the number of arrivals to New Zealand on foreign passports was just 16% of 2019 levels for the same period. With virtually no arrivals from anywhere except Australia and the Cook Islands at the moment, these figures suggest that visitor arrivals from Australia are running at about 40-50% of their pre-COVID levels. Read


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The global tourism industry was hit hard by unprecedented disruption from COVID-19 and ensuing travel restrictions in 2020. In New Zealand, the international tourism tap was firmly turned off. On the flipside, New Zealanders developed a newfound appreciation for their own backyard, ticking our beautiful glaciers, fiords, and more off their bucket lists. Read


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The summer of 2020/21 provided a boost to a number of regional economies even as traditional tourism hotspots remained hard hit by the loss of international tourism. The latest Infometrics Quarterly Economic Monitor points to a faltering in the overall economic recovery, with a further divergence across New Zealand. Some parts of the country have continued to recover further but other areas show patches of softer economic activity. Read


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The New Zealand economy continues to chart a more optimistic and upbeat path, as restrictions on economic and social activity remains lower than almost anywhere globally. The latest Infometrics Quarterly Economic Monitor shows regional economic activity in the December quarter continue to improve, although the hit to different areas is become starker, with tourism-related industries still feeling a much harder hit than other sectors. Read


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Since the borders were closed in March, we have consistently argued that an increase in spending by New Zealanders on domestic holidays could never make up for the loss in revenue from foreign visitors. Data for 2019 shows that international tourism was worth $16.0b to the New Zealand economy, while Kiwis spent $6.2b on overseas holidays. Read


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The announcement of community transmission of COVID-19 in August has been a reality check on our progress towards recovery. With Auckland now under Alert Level 3 restrictions, and the rest of New Zealand at Alert Level 2, the economic outlook has turned darker. This note provides our initial analysis of the economic effects of the changes, as well as an update on how our view of the economic outlook is changing. Read


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Auckland is home to a third of the country’s population, so with the region under Level 3 lockdown, the flow of visitors to all of the country is affected. Read