There’s no let-up in economic news in April, with the latest inflation data showing, finally, some moderation in the pace of price increases. New tax data reports have also been released, and debates about a Trans-Tasman brain drain have been reignited.

In our newsletter this month, Chief Executive and Principal Economist Brad Olsen looks at the recent Australian government announcement to allow for a better citizenship pathway for Kiwis, and the resulting concerns over a brain drain to Australia. His assessment of Trans-Tasman migration data shows that there is already a net outflow to Australia, even before the announcement.

Principal Consultant Rob Heyes analyses household finances ahead of the looming recession, finding that disposable income, spending, and savings have all fallen recently.

On a sunnier front, economist Joel Glynn has examined the pipeline of electricity generation projects across New Zealand. His analysis finds that solar projects are appearing in other parts of the North Island, but also that the Lake Onslow project is a major project dominating the pipeline. More detailed data is available via subscription to the Infometrics Infrastructure Pipeline Profile (IPP).

With a few more months’ data now available, economist Sabrina Swerdloff delves into the figures around New Zealand’s tourism recovery. She finds that, although the recovery has been strong so far, it’s starting to plateau as economic realities hit.

Finally, Brad rounds out the newsletter with a Chart of the Month looking at ad spending, finding that there’s been a strong trend towards more digital advertising over time. More importantly, digital ad spending plateaued over 2022, highlighting more challenging times ahead for media and signaling that business spending is under a microscope.

Kiwis already moving across the Ditch
Kangaroos on grass field
The recent announcement by the Australian government of the return to a simpler citizenship pathway for Kiwis has been met with concerns over a further loss of talent across the ditch. Infometrics analysis of migration data between New Zealand and Australia shows that New Zealand is already seeing a...
How resilient are household finances?
New Zealand is expected to experience an economic recession this year. The technical definition of a recession is when GDP declines for two successive quarters. With GDP having fallen 0.6% in the December 2022 quarter, we might already be in recession. How well positioned are Kiwi households to navi...
Scale of power generation projects grows
Wind turbine
Infometrics has recently conducted further analysis into planned spending on new electricity generation assets as part of our recent update to the Infometrics Infrastructure Pipeline Profile (IPP). Our analysis has identified some trends in the electricity generation sub-sector, including a shift to...
The tourism recovery has hit a plateau
Tourism has been a beacon of light in New Zealand’s economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. International tourist arrivals climbed over 2022, rebounding to 68% of pre-pandemic (same month in 2019) levels in December 2022. However, more recent data from Stats NZ suggests that this rebound is be...
Chart of the Month: Ad spending signals challenging media landscape
Man holding a smartphone near the window
High inflation, rising interest rates, and more limited sales across the economy have bolstered expectations for a recession, particularly with the Reserve Bank charting a course directly toward this destination. A recession will affect, and already has affected, various parts of the economy in diff...